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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Arouca

S T U S T

2–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

43%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

43%

38%

Both score Ø 38%

43%

33%

Average goals

2,6

1,8

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

9 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 11

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Casa Pia 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	21	18	2	1	+41	56
2	Porto	21	16	3	2	+36	51
3	Sp Braga	21	16	1	4	+27	49
4	Sp Lisbon	21	13	2	6	+20	41
5	Guimaraes	21	10	4	7	-1	34
6	Casa Pia	21	9	5	7	-2	32
7	Arouca	21	8	6	7	-7	30
8	Famalicao	22	8	3	11	-7	27
9	Vizela	21	7	5	9	+2	26
10	Chaves	21	6	8	7	-6	26
11	Boavista	21	7	5	9	-10	26
12	Portimonense	22	8	2	12	-10	26
13	Rio Ave	21	6	6	9	-5	24
14	Gil Vicente	21	6	5	10	-7	23
15	Estoril	21	6	4	11	-10	22
16	Santa Clara	21	3	6	12	-14	15
17	Maritimo	21	3	4	14	-25	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	21	3	3	15	-22	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	1	0	+26	31
2	Porto	10	9	0	1	+26	27
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	0	2	+20	24
4	Guimaraes	11	7	2	2	+5	23
5	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+15	22
6	Famalicao	11	6	1	4	+3	19
7	Arouca	11	6	1	4	+1	19
8	Boavista	11	5	4	2	+0	19
9	Portimonense	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Rio Ave	10	5	1	4	+3	16
11	Casa Pia	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Vizela	10	4	2	4	+5	14
13	Gil Vicente	11	3	4	4	-2	13
14	Chaves	10	2	5	3	-1	11
15	Estoril	10	3	2	5	-6	11
16	Santa Clara	11	2	4	5	-8	10
17	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-5	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	11	9	0	2	+12	27
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
4	Sp Lisbon	11	5	2	4	+0	17
5	Casa Pia	10	5	2	3	-2	17
6	Chaves	11	4	3	4	-5	15
7	Vizela	11	3	3	5	-3	12
8	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-4	11
9	Guimaraes	10	3	2	5	-6	11
10	Arouca	10	2	5	3	-8	11
11	Gil Vicente	10	3	1	6	-5	10
12	Portimonense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
13	Rio Ave	11	1	5	5	-8	8
14	Famalicao	11	2	2	7	-10	8
15	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Boavista	10	2	1	7	-10	7
17	Santa Clara	10	1	2	7	-6	5
18	Maritimo	11	1	2	8	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.