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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Estoril

T T U S S

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

4,0

4,2

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 31%

28%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

61%

56%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,07 xG 0,50

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 12. · Guimaraes 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	19	15	2	2	+39	+33.6	47
2	Benfica	19	13	2	4	+29	+23.2	41
3	Porto	18	13	1	4	+27	+17.9	40
4	Sp Braga	18	10	4	4	+12	+12.6	34
5	Santa Clara	18	10	1	7	+1	+9.9	31
6	Casa Pia	19	8	6	5	+2	-3.6	30
7	Guimaraes	18	6	8	4	+4	+6.0	26
8	Moreirense	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.7	23
9	Rio Ave	19	6	5	8	-12	-15.7	23
10	Gil Vicente	18	5	7	6	-5	-5.8	22
11	Famalicao	19	4	9	6	-4	-8.2	21
12	Estoril	18	5	6	7	-9	-15.5	21
13	Nacional	19	5	4	10	-10	-3.2	19
14	Arouca	19	5	4	10	-14	-10.7	19
15	Estrela	19	4	5	10	-14	-11.4	17
16	AVS	18	2	9	7	-13	-9.0	15
17	Farense	19	3	6	10	-13	-14.8	15
18	Boavista	18	2	6	10	-16	-6.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
2	Porto	9	9	0	0	+23	+18.7	27
3	Sp Lisbon	9	8	0	1	+16	+13.7	24
4	Santa Clara	10	6	1	3	+1	+9.5	19
5	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+7	+1.4	16
6	Guimaraes	9	4	4	1	+4	+3.9	16
7	Casa Pia	10	4	4	2	+4	+0.5	16
8	Moreirense	9	4	4	1	+2	-1.5	16
9	Rio Ave	9	4	4	1	+1	-1.7	16
10	Nacional	9	5	1	3	-1	-1.3	16
11	Estrela	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.4	14
12	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+3	+9.5	12
13	Estoril	9	3	3	3	-3	-6.7	12
14	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-2	-0.3	11
15	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	-6.7	11
16	AVS	9	2	4	3	-5	-6.5	10
17	Farense	9	2	1	6	-8	-4.5	7
18	Boavista	9	0	3	6	-11	-2.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
2	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.1	22
3	Benfica	9	4	2	3	+3	+5.9	14
4	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	-2	-4.1	14
5	Porto	9	4	1	4	+4	-0.8	13
6	Santa Clara	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.4	12
7	Guimaraes	9	2	4	3	+0	+2.2	10
8	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-7.9	10
9	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.6	9
10	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.8	9
11	Farense	10	1	5	4	-5	-10.3	8
12	Arouca	10	2	2	6	-10	-3.9	8
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-6	+2.2	7
14	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-13	-14.0	7
15	Gil Vicente	9	1	3	5	-12	-7.2	6
16	AVS	9	0	5	4	-8	-2.4	5
17	Nacional	10	0	3	7	-9	-2.0	3
18	Estrela	9	0	3	6	-12	-7.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.