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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Fonseca

Nacional

S S T T S

2–2

Full-time

Estoril

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

38%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

33%

62%

Both score Ø 41%

33%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,39 xG 1,48

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

6 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 14. · Estoril 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	21	16	3	2	+41	+33.8	51
2	Benfica	21	15	2	4	+31	+24.5	47
3	Porto	21	13	4	4	+27	+21.6	43
4	Sp Braga	21	13	4	4	+18	+16.1	43
5	Santa Clara	21	12	2	7	+3	+8.9	38
6	Casa Pia	22	9	6	7	+1	-5.1	33
7	Guimaraes	21	7	9	5	+5	+6.5	30
8	Estoril	21	8	6	7	-6	-14.6	30
9	Moreirense	22	7	5	10	-5	+1.1	26
10	Famalicao	21	5	10	6	-2	-6.6	25
11	Rio Ave	21	6	7	8	-12	-16.7	25
12	Arouca	21	6	5	10	-13	-9.0	23
13	Gil Vicente	21	5	7	9	-9	-7.9	22
14	Nacional	21	6	4	11	-9	-4.6	22
15	Estrela	22	5	5	12	-15	-13.4	20
16	AVS	21	3	9	9	-15	-9.7	18
17	Farense	21	3	6	12	-17	-14.8	15
18	Boavista	22	2	6	14	-23	-10.1	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+27	+17.9	30
2	Porto	11	9	2	0	+23	+22.2	29
3	Sp Lisbon	10	9	0	1	+18	+14.2	27
4	Santa Clara	11	7	1	3	+2	+11.1	22
5	Guimaraes	10	5	4	1	+6	+4.9	19
6	Casa Pia	11	5	4	2	+5	+1.8	19
7	Moreirense	11	5	4	2	+2	-0.6	19
8	Sp Braga	11	5	3	3	+8	+12.9	18
9	Estoril	11	5	3	3	-1	-5.8	18
10	Rio Ave	10	4	5	1	+1	-1.8	17
11	Gil Vicente	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.4	16
12	Nacional	10	5	1	4	-2	-2.0	16
13	Estrela	11	4	2	5	-3	-5.1	14
14	AVS	11	3	4	4	-5	-6.2	13
15	Famalicao	11	2	6	3	-2	-0.3	12
16	Arouca	10	3	3	4	-4	-5.9	12
17	Farense	10	2	1	7	-10	-3.9	7
18	Boavista	11	0	3	8	-14	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+10	+3.3	25
2	Sp Lisbon	11	7	3	1	+23	+19.5	24
3	Benfica	10	5	2	3	+4	+6.6	17
4	Santa Clara	10	5	1	4	+1	-2.2	16
5	Porto	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.7	14
6	Casa Pia	11	4	2	5	-4	-6.8	14
7	Famalicao	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.3	13
8	Estoril	10	3	3	4	-5	-8.9	12
9	Guimaraes	11	2	5	4	-1	+1.6	11
10	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	-3.2	11
11	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-9	-6.1	9
12	Farense	11	1	5	5	-7	-10.9	8
13	Rio Ave	11	2	2	7	-13	-14.9	8
14	Moreirense	11	2	1	8	-7	+1.6	7
15	Nacional	11	1	3	7	-7	-2.6	6
16	Estrela	11	1	3	7	-12	-8.3	6
17	Gil Vicente	11	1	3	7	-15	-9.2	6
18	AVS	10	0	5	5	-10	-3.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.