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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Alverca

S T S S U

0–4

Full-time

Gil Vicente

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 51%

38%

63%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

75%

13%

Both score Ø 38%

63%

13%

Average goals

2,9

1,8

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,56 xG 1,20

56% Possession 44%

6 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Alverca 9. · Gil Vicente 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+18	+12.2	22
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+15	+13.4	19
3	Benfica	8	5	3	0	+9	+7.4	18
4	Gil Vicente	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.3	16
5	Moreirense	8	5	0	3	+1	-3.4	15
6	Famalicao	8	3	4	1	+4	+3.4	13
7	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	-3	-1.2	11
8	Sp Braga	8	2	4	2	+4	+2.4	10
9	Alverca	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.3	10
10	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.8	10
11	Arouca	8	2	3	3	-9	-9.9	9
12	Rio Ave	8	1	5	2	-2	-5.0	8
13	Santa Clara	8	2	2	4	-4	+1.2	8
14	Casa Pia	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.6	8
15	Estrela	8	1	4	3	-2	-0.6	7
16	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-3	-5.4	6
17	Tondela	8	1	2	5	-10	-5.1	5
18	AVS	8	0	1	7	-15	-6.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	4	3	1	0	+8	+6.9	10
3	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
4	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
5	Guimaraes	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.5	8
6	Sp Lisbon	4	2	1	1	+8	+6.8	7
7	Alverca	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.4	6
8	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.4	5
9	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.8	5
10	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-4	-6.0	5
11	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.4	4
12	Estrela	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.1	4
13	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
14	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
15	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	+0.2	3
16	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
17	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
18	AVS	4	0	0	4	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.3	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+6.6	12
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
4	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
5	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.0	7
6	Nacional	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
7	Sp Braga	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.0	6
8	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
9	Alverca	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.6	4
10	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.2	4
11	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
12	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.2	3
13	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
15	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
16	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.9	3
17	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
18	AVS	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.