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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa

Alverca

T U T S T

2–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,67 xG 1,24

43% Possession 57%

11 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alverca 16. · Guimaraes 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+15	+13.1	18
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+14	+9.2	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+9	+7.9	17
4	Moreirense	7	5	0	2	+2	-2.8	15
5	Gil Vicente	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.9	13
6	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.1	11
7	Sp Braga	6	2	3	1	+5	+3.4	9
8	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.6	8
9	Santa Clara	7	2	2	3	-3	+2.0	8
10	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-5	-6.0	8
11	Estrela	7	1	4	2	+0	+0.8	7
12	Casa Pia	7	2	1	4	-5	-4.4	7
13	Estoril	7	1	2	4	-3	-5.6	5
14	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-7	-3.6	5
15	Rio Ave	6	0	4	2	-5	-4.6	4
16	Alverca	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.5	4
17	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.2	4
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-13	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
3	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	0	1	+8	+6.5	6
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
6	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
7	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
8	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
9	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.1	4
10	Estrela	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.1	4
11	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
12	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
13	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
14	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
15	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
16	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.2	1
17	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.4	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+6.6	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.9	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.0	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
6	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
7	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.8	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Estrela	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
12	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
13	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.9	3
14	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.4	3
15	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.3	2
16	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
17	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.7	1
18	AVS	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.