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Primeira Liga

Referee: L Filipe

Alverca

U T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Tondela

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

100%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,66 xG 2,36

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alverca 16. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.6	12
2	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.2	10
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	0	1	+10	+6.4	9
4	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.9	9
5	Moreirense	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
6	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+6	+3.2	8
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
8	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-4	-3.4	5
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
10	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.3	4
11	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
12	Rio Ave	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.4	3
13	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.2	3
14	Casa Pia	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
15	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-2	-3.2	2
16	Alverca	4	0	1	3	-5	-0.8	1
17	AVS	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.5	1
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.6	6
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
10	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
11	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
14	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
16	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.7	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
5	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.1	4
6	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.0	4
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.2	3
10	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.2	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
12	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
14	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
15	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
16	Arouca	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.5	1
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
18	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.