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Primeira Liga

Referee: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Estoril

T U S U S

4–3

Full-time

Arouca

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,6

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,4

2,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,71 xG 0,78

47% Possession 53%

19 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 12. · Arouca 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+20	+13.8	28
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+20	+18.2	25
3	Benfica	10	7	3	0	+17	+12.4	24
4	Gil Vicente	10	7	1	2	+11	+3.9	22
5	Famalicao	10	5	4	1	+7	+5.9	19
6	Moreirense	10	6	0	4	+2	-5.0	18
7	Sp Braga	10	3	4	3	+7	+4.9	13
8	Santa Clara	10	3	2	5	-3	+2.8	11
9	Nacional	10	3	2	5	-4	-2.6	11
10	Rio Ave	10	2	5	3	-5	-8.2	11
11	Guimaraes	10	3	2	5	-8	-4.2	11
12	Estoril	10	2	4	4	+1	-1.8	10
13	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-1	+0.7	10
14	Alverca	10	3	1	6	-7	-2.9	10
15	Arouca	10	2	3	5	-16	-13.3	9
16	Casa Pia	10	2	2	6	-11	-8.2	8
17	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-13	-6.9	6
18	AVS	10	0	2	8	-17	-9.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	1	0	+9	+6.9	13
2	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+5	-0.5	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.3	12
4	Benfica	5	3	2	0	+9	+8.7	11
5	Sp Lisbon	5	3	1	1	+10	+8.8	10
6	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.7	8
7	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	-1	-0.2	8
8	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+5	+4.9	7
9	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	+4.0	7
10	Alverca	5	2	0	3	-5	+0.8	6
11	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.3	5
12	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.8	5
13	Arouca	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
14	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.3	4
15	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.1	2
17	Casa Pia	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.5	2
18	AVS	5	0	1	4	-8	-3.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+6.9	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+10	+9.4	15
3	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+8	+3.7	13
4	Famalicao	5	3	2	0	+3	+4.2	11
5	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+6	+0.6	10
6	Nacional	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.6	8
7	Sp Braga	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.1	6
8	Estrela	5	1	3	1	+0	-0.5	6
9	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-1	-4.4	6
10	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-3	-4.5	6
11	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-5	-2.7	6
12	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+1	-0.5	5
13	Alverca	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.7	4
14	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.2	4
15	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-9	-4.8	4
16	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-10	-7.2	4
17	Guimaraes	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.0	3
18	AVS	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.