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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Estoril

S U T T U

4–1

Full-time

Arouca

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

13%

25%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

1,9

2,1

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,23 xG 1,69

34% Possession 66%

12 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 9

0 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 15. · Arouca 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	8	0	0	+25	+19.1	24
2	Porto	8	7	0	1	+14	+11.8	21
3	Santa Clara	9	6	0	3	+3	+6.9	18
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
5	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+2.3	14
6	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+1	+1.9	14
7	Famalicao	8	3	4	1	+5	-0.2	13
8	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	-1	+1.8	11
9	Casa Pia	9	3	2	4	-4	-2.8	11
10	Gil Vicente	9	2	4	3	-3	-3.3	10
11	AVS	8	2	3	3	-4	-3.1	9
12	Rio Ave	8	2	2	4	-7	-4.8	8
13	Arouca	8	2	1	5	-9	-9.9	7
14	Boavista	8	1	3	4	-5	-2.0	6
15	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-7	-9.6	6
16	Estrela	8	1	2	5	-8	-7.3	5
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-9	-0.8	5
18	Farense	8	1	1	6	-10	-8.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+12.6	15
2	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.8	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+9	+8.8	12
4	Santa Clara	5	4	0	1	+2	+5.0	12
5	Gil Vicente	4	2	2	0	+5	+2.5	8
6	Moreirense	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.2	8
7	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.1	8
8	Rio Ave	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.1	8
9	AVS	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.7	8
10	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
11	Casa Pia	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.2	7
12	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	+1.3	7
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.9	4
14	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.7	4
15	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-5	-6.6	4
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Farense	4	1	0	3	-6	-3.6	3
18	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+16	+10.3	12
2	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.3	7
3	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.9	6
6	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.3	5
7	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.3	5
8	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
9	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.9	4
10	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	+1.9	3
11	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
12	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-2	-3.0	2
13	Nacional	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.9	2
14	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-8	-5.7	2
15	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	-5.2	1
16	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.4	1
17	AVS	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.4	1
18	Rio Ave	4	0	0	4	-9	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.