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Taça de Portugal

Portimonense

T T S T S

1–2

Full-time

Arouca

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Espinho	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Alpendorada	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	Caldas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Comércio Indústria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Vila Real	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	AD Marco 09	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Celoricense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
17	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
18	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
19	União de Leiria	2	1	1	0	+2	4
20	Gouveia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Torreense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
23	SC Covilha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
25	Mortágua	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
28	AVS	1	1	0	0	+7	3
29	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
30	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
31	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
32	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
33	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
34	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
35	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
36	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
37	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
38	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+3	3
39	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
40	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Ançã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
46	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Silves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	União Lamas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
58	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
59	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Uniao Nogueirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Monção	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Machico	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2	1	0	1	-3	3
68	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
69	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
70	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
71	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
78	Charneca Caparica	2	0	1	1	-2	1
79	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
125	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
126	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
127	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
128	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
129	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
130	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
131	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
132	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
133	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
134	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
135	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
136	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
137	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
138	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alpendorada	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Caldas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Comércio Indústria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Celoricense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
8	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
9	Espinho	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
11	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
12	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
13	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
14	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
16	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Ançã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Silves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	União Lamas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Uniao Nogueirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
41	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
42	União de Leiria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Torreense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Mortágua	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
48	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Monção	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
72	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	AVS	1	1	0	0	+7	3
8	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
9	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
10	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
17	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
36	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Gouveia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	FC Serpa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Charneca Caparica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
82	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
83	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
84	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
85	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
86	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.