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2. Bundesliga
Referee: Eric-Dominic Weisbach
Dresden
T U U T T
1–2
Full-time
Nurnberg
T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Nurnberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,5
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
2,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — 2. Bundesliga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 18%
9%
27%
Points per game
0,6
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
73%
55%
Both score Ø 69%
73%
64%
Average goals
3,4
2,4
Scored
1,4
1,0
Conceded
2,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,96 xG 1,21
51% Possession 49%
9 Shots 9
1 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dresden 17. · Nurnberg 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paderborn 11 8 2 1 +9 +3.2 26
2 Schalke 04 11 8 0 3 +8 +1.8 24
3 Elversberg 11 7 2 2 +14 -3.0 23
4 Hannover 11 6 3 2 +5 +2.6 21
5 Karlsruhe 11 6 3 2 +5 -0.8 21
6 Kaiserslautern 11 6 2 3 +7 +0.1 20
7 Darmstadt 11 5 4 2 +7 +3.6 19
8 Hertha 11 5 2 4 +4 -0.9 17
9 Bielefeld 11 4 2 5 +3 -1.0 14
10 Preußen Münster 11 4 2 5 -3 -1.8 14
11 Holstein Kiel 11 3 3 5 +0 -0.6 12
12 Nurnberg 11 3 3 5 -4 +0.3 12
13 Fortuna Dusseldorf 11 3 2 6 -9 -3.8 11
14 Bochum 11 3 1 7 -4 +3.0 10
15 Braunschweig 11 3 1 7 -10 -1.3 10
16 Greuther Furth 11 3 1 7 -13 -0.6 10
17 Dresden 11 1 4 6 -7 +0.8 7
18 Magdeburg 11 2 1 8 -12 -1.7 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dresden Nurnberg
1′
R. Lubach 0–1
A. Stepanov
Christoph Daferner 🟨
44′
1–1 D. Kother
C. Daferner
45′
Half-time 1–2
50′
T. Janisch 1–2
J. Justvan
J. Lemmer 🔁
↦ C. Daferner
59′
A. Casar 🔁
↦ K. Amoako
59′
K. Faber 🔁
↦ J. H. Marx
71′
T. Menzel 🔁
↦ N. Hauptmann
71′
73′
🟨 Rafael Lubach
74′
🔁 T. Drexler
↦ T. Janisch
74′
🔁 P. Demba
↦ M. A. Zoma
74′
🔁 A. Grimaldi
↦ A. Stepanov
Aljaž Casar 🟨
81′
J. Oehmichen 🔁
↦ D. Kother
81′
84′
🟨 Finn Ole Becker
87′
🔁 P. Scobel
↦ R. Lubach
87′
🔁 O. Karafiat
↦ J. Justvan
Tony Menzel 🟨
93′
94′
🟨 Adam Markhiev
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Dresden

4-2-3-1
22 L. Grill G
26 J. H. Marx D
29 L. Boeder D
23 L. Bunning D
19 A. Rossipal D
6 K. Amoako M
27 N. Hauptmann M
16 N. Froling M
9 V. Vermeij M
11 D. Kother M
33 C. Daferner F
Bench (9)
37 D. Mesenholer
2 K. Faber
8 L. Herrmann
10 J. Lemmer
15 C. Kammerknecht
17 A. Casar
24 T. Menzel
25 J. Oehmichen
42 F. Muller

Coach: Thomas Stamm

Nurnberg

4-5-1
1 J. Reichert G
32 T. Janisch D
4 F. Gruber D
31 R. Knoche D
21 B. Yilmaz D
10 J. Justvan M
25 F. O. Becker M
6 A. Markhiev M
18 R. Lubach M
23 M. A. Zoma M
11 A. Stepanov F
Bench (9)
26 C. Mathenia
5 T. Baack
9 S. Telalovic
15 T. Drexler
20 P. Demba
33 A. Grimaldi
39 P. Scobel
41 E. Porstner
44 O. Karafiat

Coach: Miroslav Josef Klose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,49
U
3,48
B ✓
2,56
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,66
U2,5
2,10
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.