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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Man City

S U S T S

3–1

Full-time

Leicester

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 68%

65%

71%

Points per game

2,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

88%

53%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

53%

Average goals

3,9

3,0

Scored

2,8

2,4

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%

23 Shots 5

12 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Leicester 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	16	1	0	+28	49
2	Leicester	17	12	3	2	+29	39
3	Man City	17	11	2	4	+28	35
4	Chelsea	17	9	2	6	+6	29
5	Sheffield United	18	7	7	4	+6	28
6	Wolves	18	6	9	3	+4	27
7	Tottenham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
8	Man United	17	6	7	4	+6	25
9	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	-6	25
10	Burnley	18	7	3	8	-6	24
11	Arsenal	18	5	8	5	-3	23
12	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	-5	23
13	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-5	20
14	Bournemouth	18	5	4	9	-6	19
15	Everton	18	5	4	9	-9	19
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-9	19
17	Southampton	18	5	3	10	-16	18
18	Aston Villa	18	4	3	11	-9	15
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-18	12
20	Watford	17	1	6	10	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Leicester	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Man City	8	5	1	2	+14	16
5	Man United	9	4	4	1	+7	16
6	Newcastle	9	4	4	1	+3	16
7	Burnley	9	5	0	4	+0	15
8	Chelsea	9	4	2	3	+3	14
9	Everton	9	4	2	3	+0	14
10	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+2	13
11	Wolves	9	3	4	2	+1	13
12	Arsenal	9	3	4	2	-1	13
13	Brighton	9	3	3	3	+1	12
14	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-1	12
15	Aston Villa	9	3	2	4	-2	11
16	Bournemouth	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Norwich	9	2	1	6	-8	7
19	Southampton	9	2	1	6	-15	7
20	Watford	8	0	4	4	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Man City	9	6	1	2	+14	19
3	Leicester	8	5	1	2	+15	16
4	Sheffield United	9	3	6	0	+4	15
5	Chelsea	8	5	0	3	+3	15
6	Wolves	9	3	5	1	+3	14
7	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-3	12
8	Southampton	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Crystal Palace	9	3	2	4	-4	11
10	Arsenal	9	2	4	3	-2	10
11	Bournemouth	9	3	1	5	-2	10
12	Man United	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Tottenham	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Burnley	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Newcastle	9	3	0	6	-9	9
16	Brighton	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Everton	9	1	2	6	-9	5
18	Norwich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Watford	9	1	2	6	-14	5
20	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.