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Champions League
Referee: Carlos del Cerro
Napoli
S S U U S
4–1
Full-time
Liverpool
U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,5
Scored
2,5
2,5
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

39% Possession 61%
18 Shots 15
9 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 6
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 12
6 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Napoli Liverpool
1–0 P. Zieliński ⚽
5′
10′
🟨 James Milner
Victor Osimhen ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
17′
18′
🟨 Virgil van Dijk
2–0 A. Zambo Anguissa ⚽
P. Zieliński
31′
G. Simeone 🔁
↦ V. Osimhen
41′
3–0 G. Simeone ⚽
K. Kvaratskhelia
44′
Half-time 3–0
46′
🔁 J. Matip
↦ J. Gomez
4–0 P. Zieliński ⚽
47′
49′
⚽ L. Díaz 4–1
A. Robertson
A. Zerbin 🔁
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
57′
H. Lozano 🔁
↦ M. Politano
58′
62′
🔁 Thiago Alcântara
↦ J. Milner
62′
🔁 Diogo Jota
↦ Mohamed Salah
62′
🔁 D. Núñez
↦ Roberto Firmino
Amir Rrahmani 🟨
66′
E. Elmas 🔁
↦ P. Zieliński
74′
Mário Rui 🔁
↦ M. Olivera
74′
77′
🔁 Arthur
↦ H. Elliott
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Napoli

4-2-3-1
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 A. Rrahmani D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
17 M. Olivera D
99 A. Zambo Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
21 M. Politano M
20 P. Zieliński M
77 K. Kvaratskhelia M
9 V. Osimhen F
Bench (12)
18 G. Simeone
23 A. Zerbin
11 H. Lozano
7 E. Elmas
6 Mário Rui
59 A. Zanoli
81 G. Raspadori
70 G. Gaetano
30 S. Sirigu
5 Juan Jesus
91 T. Ndombélé
55 L. Østigård

Coach: L. Spalletti

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson G
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
2 J. Gomez D
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
19 H. Elliott M
3 Fabinho M
7 J. Milner M
11 Mohamed Salah F
9 Roberto Firmino F
23 L. Díaz F
Bench (10)
32 J. Matip
6 Thiago Alcântara
20 Diogo Jota
27 D. Núñez
29 Arthur
13 Adrián
21 K. Tsimikas
47 N. Phillips
43 Stefan Bajčetić
95 H. Davies

Coach: J. Klopp

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Carlos del Cerro · 93 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.