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Serie A
Referee: M Marcenaro
Napoli
S S S S U
1–1
Full-time
Lecce
S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Lecce
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
2,7
1,0
Conceded
0,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,3
-0,5
This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,3
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,7
2,0
Scored
3,0
0,7
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+2,3
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

71% Possession 29%
19 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
6 Corners 4
4 Offside 3
1 Free kicks against 3
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Napoli 5. · Lecce 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Roma 4 3 1 0 +5 10
2 Inter 4 3 0 1 +4 9
3 Milan 4 2 2 0 +4 8
4 Lazio 4 2 2 0 +3 8
5 Napoli 3 2 1 0 +7 7
6 Atalanta 3 2 1 0 +3 7
7 Torino 3 2 1 0 +2 7
8 Udinese 4 2 1 1 +0 7
9 Juventus 3 1 2 0 +3 5
10 Fiorentina 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Sassuolo 4 1 2 1 -2 5
12 Salernitana 3 1 1 1 +3 4
13 Spezia 3 1 1 1 -2 4
14 Empoli 4 0 3 1 -1 3
15 Verona 4 0 2 2 -4 2
16 Sampdoria 4 0 2 2 -6 2
17 Lecce 3 0 1 2 -2 1
18 Bologna 3 0 1 2 -3 1
19 Cremonese 4 0 0 4 -5 0
20 Monza 4 0 0 4 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Napoli Lecce
Matteo Politano 🟨
13′
1–0 E. Elmas
M. Politano
27′
31′
L. Colombo 1–1
M. Hjulmand
33′
🟨 Morten Hjulmand
40′
🟨 Lorenzo Colombo
Half-time 1–1
S. Lobotka 🔁
↦ T. Ndombélé
46′
P. Zieliński 🔁
↦ G. Raspadori
46′
46′
🔁 JoanGonzàlez
↦ Þ. Helgason
K. Kvaratskhelia 🔁
↦ E. Elmas
56′
62′
🔁 Gabriel Strefezza
↦ F. Di Francesco
62′
🔁 A. Blin
↦ K. Askildsen
70′
🔁 A. Ceesay
↦ L. Colombo
H. Lozano 🔁
↦ M. Politano
71′
75′
🔁 M. Listkowski
↦ L. Banda
G. Simeone 🔁
↦ A. Zambo Anguissa
85′
96′
🟨 Joan González
97′
🟨 Valentin Gendrey
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Napoli

4-2-3-1
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
55 L. Østigård D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
17 M. Olivera D
99 A. Zambo Anguissa M
91 T. Ndombélé M
21 M. Politano M
81 G. Raspadori M
7 E. Elmas M
9 V. Osimhen F
Bench (13)
68 S. Lobotka
20 P. Zieliński
77 K. Kvaratskhelia
11 H. Lozano
18 G. Simeone
13 A. Rrahmani
6 Mário Rui
23 A. Zerbin
30 S. Sirigu
5 Juan Jesus
59 A. Zanoli
70 G. Gaetano
12 D. Marfella

Coach: L. Spalletti

Lecce

4-1-4-1
30 W. Falcone G
17 V. Gendrey D
13 A. Tuia D
6 F. Baschirotto D
97 G. Pezzella D
42 M. Hjulmand M
11 F. Di Francesco M
14 Þ. Helgason M
7 K. Askildsen M
22 L. Banda M
9 L. Colombo F
Bench (12)
16 JoanGonzàlez
27 Gabriel Strefezza
29 A. Blin
77 A. Ceesay
19 M. Listkowski
36 J. Samooja
24 G. Frabotta
93 S. Umtiti
1 M. Bleve
8 K. Bistrović
25 A. Gallo
99 Pablo Rodríguez

Coach: M. Baroni

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,26
U ✓
6,24
B
10,99
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,45
U2,5 ✓
2,74
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Marcenaro · 68 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.