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Premier League

Referee: A Marriner

Liverpool

S U U T S

2–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

2,7

Scored

3,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

4,5

2,5

Scored

3,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

72% Possession 28%

23 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 12. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Man City	5	4	1	0	+14	13
3	Tottenham	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Fulham	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	-2	7
9	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+3	6
10	Newcastle	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Man United	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Liverpool	4	1	2	1	+8	5
13	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-9	4
16	Bournemouth	5	1	1	3	-14	4
17	Everton	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Wolves	5	0	3	2	-2	3
19	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-5	3
20	Leicester	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+12	9
2	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+9	4
7	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Everton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	West Ham	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Tottenham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-3	3
8	Man United	2	1	0	1	-3	3
9	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Everton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-8	1
18	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Aston Villa	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.