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Champions League
Referee: D Massa
Marseille
T S T U S
4–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+2,0
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,5
2,5
Scored
0,0
2,5
Conceded
1,5
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+2,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

56% Possession 44%
20 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 2
11 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Marseille Sp Lisbon
1′
⚽ Trincão 0–1
M. Edwards
1–1 A. Sánchez ⚽
13′
2–1 A. Harit ⚽
J. Clauss
16′
23′
🟥 Antonio Adán
26′
🔁 F. Israel
↦ M. Edwards
3–1 L. Balerdi ⚽
A. Harit
28′
I. Kaboré 🔁
↦ J. Clauss
32′
34′
🟨 Jeremiah St. Juste
40′
🟨 Nuno Santos
Jordan Veretout 🟨
43′
43′
🟨 Ricardo Esgaio
Half-time 3–1
46′
🔁 Paulinho
↦ Nuno Santos
46′
🔁 Flávio Nazinho
↦ M. Ugarte
46′
🔁 S. Alexandropoulos
↦ Pote
46′
🔁 José Marsà
↦ J. St. Juste
V. Rongier 🔁
↦ J. Veretout
62′
P. Gueye 🔁
↦ C. Ünder
62′
Gerson 🔁
↦ A. Harit
77′
S. Gigot 🔁
↦ E. Bailly
77′
4–1 C. Mbemba ⚽
84′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Marseille

3-4-2-1
16 Pau López G
99 C. Mbemba D
3 E. Bailly D
5 L. Balerdi D
7 J. Clauss M
6 M. Guendouzi M
27 J. Veretout M
30 Nuno Tavares M
17 C. Ünder F
77 A. Harit F
70 A. Sánchez F
Bench (9)
29 I. Kaboré
21 V. Rongier
22 P. Gueye
8 Gerson
4 S. Gigot
36 Rubén Blanco
10 D. Payet
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu
11 L. Suárez

Coach: I. Tudor

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 Adán G
3 J. St. Juste D
25 Gonçalo Inácio D
2 Matheus Reis D
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
15 M. Ugarte M
5 H. Morita M
11 Nuno Santos M
17 Trincão F
28 Pote F
10 M. Edwards F
Bench (9)
12 F. Israel
20 Paulinho
71 Flávio Nazinho
6 S. Alexandropoulos
63 José Marsà
22 André Paulo
16 Rochinha
18 I. Fatawu
33 Arthur Gomes

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.