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Ligue 1
Referee: B Millot
Marseille
S S S S T
2–1
Full-time
Lille
U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
2,2
4,3
Scored
1,5
2,2
Conceded
0,7
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,7
4,3
Scored
2,2
2,2
Conceded
0,5
2,2
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%
14 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
22 Free kicks against 17
5 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 3. · Lille 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 7 6 1 0 +21 19
2 Lens 7 5 2 0 +9 17
3 Marseille 6 5 1 0 +10 16
4 Lyon 6 4 1 1 +8 13
5 Lorient 6 4 1 1 +2 13
6 Lille 6 3 1 2 +0 10
7 Montpellier 6 3 0 3 +4 9
8 Clermont 6 3 0 3 -2 9
9 Rennes 6 2 2 2 +1 8
10 Monaco 6 2 2 2 -3 8
11 Troyes 7 2 1 4 -4 7
12 Auxerre 6 2 1 3 -4 7
13 Nantes 6 1 3 2 -2 6
14 Reims 6 1 3 2 -3 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 2 3 -4 5
16 Nice 6 1 2 3 -4 5
17 Brest 7 1 2 4 -9 5
18 Strasbourg 6 0 4 2 -2 4
19 Angers 6 0 2 4 -11 2
20 Ajaccio 6 0 1 5 -7 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Lille
12′
Ismaily 0–1
Leonardo Balerdi 🟨
14′
1–1 A. Sánchez
C. Ünder
26′
Nuno Tavares 🔁
↦ L. Balerdi
28′
Half-time 1–1
E. Bailly 🔁
↦ C. Mbemba
46′
Pape Gueye 🟨
50′
Samuel Gigot 🟨
57′
2–1 S. Gigot
S. Kolašinac
61′
65′
🔁 André Gomes
↦ A. Gomes
J. Veretout 🔁
↦ A. Harit
67′
S. Touré 🔁
↦ S. Gigot
67′
Souleymane Isaak Touré 🟨
68′
Nuno Tavares 🟨
72′
78′
🟨 Tiago Djaló
78′
🔁 A. Virginius
↦ A. Ounas
78′
🔁 M. Bayo
↦ J. David
Gerson 🔁
↦ A. Sánchez
86′
86′
🔁 G. Gudmundsson
↦ A. Zedadka
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Marseille

3-4-2-1
16 Pau López G
99 C. Mbemba D
4 S. Gigot D
5 L. Balerdi D
7 J. Clauss M
6 M. Guendouzi M
22 P. Gueye M
23 S. Kolašinac M
17 C. Ünder F
77 A. Harit F
70 A. Sánchez F
Bench (9)
30 Nuno Tavares
3 E. Bailly
27 J. Veretout
18 S. Touré
8 Gerson
11 L. Suárez
29 I. Kaboré
36 Rubén Blanco
10 D. Payet

Coach: I. Tudor

Lille

3-4-3
30 L. Chevalier G
18 B. Diakité D
6 José Fonte D
3 Tiago Djaló D
13 A. Zedadka M
21 B. André M
20 A. Gomes M
31 Ismaily M
11 A. Ounas F
9 J. David F
7 J. Bamba F
Bench (9)
28 André Gomes
26 A. Virginius
27 M. Bayo
5 G. Gudmundsson
8 J. Martin
1 Léo Jardim
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro
15 L. Yoro
35 C. Baleba

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,98
U
3,64
B
3,77
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,78
U2,5
2,06
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Millot · 146 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.