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Champions League
Referee: Antonio Mateu
Milan
T S S S T
4–0
Full-time
Salzburg
U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Salzburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
2,2
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,5
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
40%
20%
Points per game
1,4
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
60%
20%
Both score Ø 60%
40%
80%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,6
1,0
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%
15 Shots 16
7 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 2
2 Offside 0
6 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Sep -22 Salzburg – Milan 1–1

Match report

Milan Salzburg
1–0 O. Giroud ⚽
S. Tonali
14′
43′
🟨 Noah Okafor
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Bernardo
↦ O. Solet
2–0 R. Krunić ⚽
O. Giroud
46′
3–0 O. Giroud ⚽
57′
61′
🟨 Lucas Gourna-Douath
62′
🔁 B. Šeško
↦ J. Adamu
64′
🔁 D. Kameri
↦ L. Gourna-Douath
T. Pobega 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
69′
Junior Messias 🔁
↦ Rafael Leão
69′
77′
🔁 A. Ulmer
↦ M. Wöber
77′
🔁 S. Koïta
↦ N. Oka
F. Ballo 🔁
↦ T. Hernández
78′
C. De Ketelaere 🔁
↦ R. Krunić
78′
M. Gabbia 🔁
↦ P. Kalulu
86′
4–0 Junior Messias ⚽
O. Giroud
91′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
1 C. Tătărușanu G
20 P. Kalulu D
24 S. Kjær D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
8 S. Tonali M
4 I. Bennacer M
12 A. Rebić M
33 R. Krunić M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (9)
32 T. Pobega
30 Junior Messias
5 F. Ballo
90 C. De Ketelaere
46 M. Gabbia
27 D. Origi
96 A. Jungdal
10 Brahim Díaz
83 A. Mirante

Coach: S. Pioli

Salzburg

4-3-1-2
18 P. Köhn G
70 A. Dedić D
22 O. Solet D
31 S. Pavlović D
39 M. Wöber D
13 N. Seiwald M
27 L. Gourna-Douath M
14 M. Kjærgaard M
21 L. Sučić M
9 J. Adamu F
77 N. Okafor F
Bench (11)
95 Bernardo
30 B. Šeško
8 D. Kameri
17 A. Ulmer
20 S. Koïta
23 R. Šimić
1 N. Mantl
24 Y. Diarra
4 K. Piątkowski
33 A. Walke
2 I. Van der Brempt

Coach: M. Jaissle

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Antonio Mateu · 160 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.