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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Napoli

S T S S S

0–4

Full-time

Milan

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 69%

85%

52%

Points per game

2,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

63%

Both score Ø 54%

41%

67%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,4

1,6

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,26 xG 2,14

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 8

9 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	27	23	2	2	+48	+9.1	71
2	Juventus	28	18	5	5	+24	+6.0	59
3	Lazio	28	16	7	5	+25	+1.6	55
4	Inter	28	16	2	10	+15	+11.2	50
5	Roma	28	15	5	8	+12	+3.9	50
6	Atalanta	28	14	6	8	+15	+4.4	48
7	Milan	27	14	6	7	+8	+0.1	48
8	Fiorentina	28	11	7	10	+2	+2.8	40
9	Bologna	28	11	7	10	+0	-1.4	40
10	Udinese	28	9	11	8	+3	-1.5	38
11	Torino	27	10	7	10	-4	+0.6	37
12	Sassuolo	27	10	6	11	-5	+2.9	36
13	Monza	28	9	7	12	-7	-0.2	34
14	Empoli	27	6	10	11	-12	-6.1	28
15	Salernitana	28	6	10	12	-16	-6.4	28
16	Lecce	27	6	9	12	-8	-1.4	27
17	Spezia	27	5	9	13	-20	-6.7	24
18	Verona	27	4	6	17	-20	-3.2	18
19	Sampdoria	28	3	6	19	-31	-8.2	15
20	Cremonese	28	1	10	17	-29	-7.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+22	+5.2	36
2	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+24	+3.5	34
3	Inter	15	11	0	4	+19	+5.9	33
4	Milan	13	9	2	2	+11	+3.0	29
5	Roma	14	9	1	4	+11	+0.5	28
6	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+11	+0.9	27
7	Bologna	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.1	26
8	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+0	+4.1	22
9	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+8	+5.4	21
10	Sassuolo	13	6	2	5	+2	+1.0	20
11	Udinese	13	4	7	2	+7	+2.5	19
12	Monza	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.0	19
13	Torino	13	5	4	4	-1	+2.2	19
14	Salernitana	14	4	4	6	-1	-3.6	16
15	Empoli	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.7	16
16	Spezia	14	3	7	4	-5	-4.3	16
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	13	2	6	5	-4	-0.6	12
19	Sampdoria	14	1	4	9	-13	-0.3	7
20	Cremonese	14	1	3	10	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	1	1	+24	+5.5	37
2	Lazio	14	8	4	2	+14	+0.6	28
3	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
4	Juventus	13	7	2	4	+2	+0.8	23
5	Roma	14	6	4	4	+1	+3.4	22
6	Milan	14	5	4	5	-3	-2.8	19
7	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.0	19
8	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.3	18
9	Torino	14	5	3	6	-3	-1.6	18
10	Inter	13	5	2	6	-4	+5.4	17
11	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-7	+1.9	16
12	Lecce	14	4	3	7	-4	-0.8	15
13	Monza	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.3	15
14	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-10	-2.4	14
15	Empoli	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.4	12
16	Salernitana	14	2	6	6	-15	-2.8	12
17	Spezia	13	2	2	9	-15	-2.4	8
18	Sampdoria	14	2	2	10	-18	-7.9	8
19	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-12	-3.7	7
20	Verona	13	0	4	9	-13	-2.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.