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Serie A

Referee: F Pasqua

Milan

T T S U S

0–1

Full-time

Napoli

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 63%

65%

60%

Points per game

2,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

64%

Both score Ø 53%

54%

52%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,9

2,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Napoli 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	27	20	5	2	+39	65
2	Milan	26	17	5	4	+20	56
3	Juventus	26	16	7	3	+32	55
4	Atalanta	27	15	7	5	+29	52
5	Roma	27	15	5	7	+11	50
6	Napoli	25	15	2	8	+26	47
7	Lazio	26	14	4	8	+5	46
8	Sassuolo	26	10	9	7	+2	39
9	Verona	27	10	8	9	+4	38
10	Udinese	27	8	9	10	-5	33
11	Sampdoria	27	9	5	13	-5	32
12	Bologna	27	8	7	12	-6	31
13	Fiorentina	27	7	8	12	-9	29
14	Genoa	27	6	10	11	-11	28
15	Spezia	27	6	8	13	-16	26
16	Benevento	27	6	8	13	-25	26
17	Cagliari	27	5	7	15	-16	22
18	Torino	25	3	11	11	-11	20
19	Parma	27	3	10	14	-27	19
20	Crotone	27	4	3	20	-37	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	1	1	+22	34
2	Roma	14	10	3	1	+18	33
3	Juventus	13	10	2	1	+20	32
4	Napoli	13	9	1	3	+22	28
5	Atalanta	14	8	3	3	+18	27
6	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+5	26
7	Milan	13	6	4	3	+6	22
8	Verona	13	6	3	4	+4	21
9	Bologna	13	6	3	4	+3	21
10	Fiorentina	14	5	5	4	+2	20
11	Sassuolo	13	4	6	3	+1	18
12	Udinese	13	5	3	5	+0	18
13	Sampdoria	13	5	2	6	+0	17
14	Genoa	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Crotone	13	4	1	8	-8	13
16	Cagliari	14	3	3	8	-9	12
17	Spezia	13	2	5	6	-7	11
18	Parma	14	2	5	7	-14	11
19	Benevento	14	2	5	7	-15	11
20	Torino	12	0	7	5	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	13	11	1	1	+14	34
2	Inter	14	9	4	1	+17	31
3	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+11	25
4	Juventus	13	6	5	2	+12	23
5	Sassuolo	13	6	3	4	+1	21
6	Lazio	13	6	2	5	+0	20
7	Napoli	12	6	1	5	+4	19
8	Verona	14	4	5	5	+0	17
9	Roma	13	5	2	6	-7	17
10	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-5	15
11	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-5	15
12	Spezia	14	4	3	7	-9	15
13	Benevento	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Torino	13	3	4	6	-5	13
15	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-10	11
16	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-7	10
17	Bologna	14	2	4	8	-9	10
18	Fiorentina	13	2	3	8	-11	9
19	Parma	13	1	5	7	-13	8
20	Crotone	14	0	2	12	-29	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.