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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Lecce

T T T T T

1–2

Full-time

Napoli

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 52%

21%

82%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

29%

57%

Both score Ø 47%

54%

39%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,9

2,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,99 xG 1,03

31% Possession 69%

11 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 16. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	28	23	2	3	+44	+8.2	71
2	Juventus	28	18	5	5	+24	+6.0	59
3	Lazio	28	16	7	5	+25	+1.6	55
4	Inter	29	16	3	10	+15	+13.1	51
5	Milan	28	15	6	7	+12	+1.0	51
6	Roma	28	15	5	8	+12	+3.9	50
7	Atalanta	28	14	6	8	+15	+4.4	48
8	Fiorentina	28	11	7	10	+2	+2.8	40
9	Bologna	28	11	7	10	+0	-1.4	40
10	Udinese	28	9	11	8	+3	-1.5	38
11	Torino	28	10	8	10	-4	+1.2	38
12	Sassuolo	28	10	7	11	-5	+2.3	37
13	Monza	28	9	7	12	-7	-0.2	34
14	Empoli	28	7	10	11	-11	-4.7	31
15	Salernitana	29	6	11	12	-16	-8.2	29
16	Lecce	28	6	9	13	-9	-2.8	27
17	Spezia	27	5	9	13	-20	-6.7	24
18	Verona	27	4	6	17	-20	-3.2	18
19	Sampdoria	28	3	6	19	-31	-8.2	15
20	Cremonese	28	1	10	17	-29	-7.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+22	+5.2	36
2	Napoli	14	11	1	2	+20	+2.7	34
3	Inter	15	11	0	4	+19	+5.9	33
4	Milan	13	9	2	2	+11	+3.0	29
5	Roma	14	9	1	4	+11	+0.5	28
6	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+11	+0.9	27
7	Bologna	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.1	26
8	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+0	+4.1	22
9	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+8	+5.4	21
10	Sassuolo	14	6	3	5	+2	+0.4	21
11	Udinese	13	4	7	2	+7	+2.5	19
12	Monza	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.0	19
13	Torino	13	5	4	4	-1	+2.2	19
14	Empoli	14	5	4	5	-2	-1.3	19
15	Salernitana	15	4	5	6	-1	-5.4	17
16	Spezia	14	3	7	4	-5	-4.3	16
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	13	2	6	5	-4	-0.6	12
19	Sampdoria	14	1	4	9	-13	-0.3	7
20	Cremonese	14	1	3	10	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	1	1	+24	+5.5	37
2	Lazio	14	8	4	2	+14	+0.6	28
3	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
4	Juventus	13	7	2	4	+2	+0.8	23
5	Milan	15	6	4	5	+1	-1.9	22
6	Roma	14	6	4	4	+1	+3.4	22
7	Torino	15	5	4	6	-3	-1.0	19
8	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.0	19
9	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.3	18
10	Inter	14	5	3	6	-4	+7.2	18
11	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-7	+1.9	16
12	Lecce	15	4	3	8	-5	-2.2	15
13	Monza	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.3	15
14	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-10	-2.4	14
15	Empoli	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.4	12
16	Salernitana	14	2	6	6	-15	-2.8	12
17	Spezia	13	2	2	9	-15	-2.4	8
18	Sampdoria	14	2	2	10	-18	-7.9	8
19	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-12	-3.7	7
20	Verona	13	0	4	9	-13	-2.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.