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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Milan

U S U S S

1–2

Full-time

Napoli

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

22 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 5. · Napoli 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	7	5	2	0	+8	17
2	Udinese	7	5	1	1	+8	16
3	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	Milan	6	4	2	0	+6	14
6	Roma	7	4	1	2	+1	13
7	Inter	7	4	0	3	+2	12
8	Juventus	7	2	4	1	+4	10
9	Torino	7	3	1	3	-1	10
10	Fiorentina	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Sassuolo	7	2	3	2	-3	9
12	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Salernitana	7	1	4	2	+2	7
14	Empoli	7	1	4	2	-1	7
15	Lecce	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Bologna	7	1	3	3	-3	6
17	Verona	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Monza	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Cremonese	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Udinese	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Milan	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Lazio	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Spezia	4	2	2	0	+2	8
8	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+5	7
9	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Bologna	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Salernitana	4	1	1	2	+2	4
13	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Sassuolo	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Verona	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Monza	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Empoli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Sampdoria	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Cremonese	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Roma	4	2	1	1	-2	7
4	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Torino	4	2	0	2	-1	6
6	Lazio	3	1	2	0	+4	5
7	Milan	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Empoli	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Sassuolo	4	1	2	1	-2	5
10	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Salernitana	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Inter	4	1	0	3	-4	3
13	Juventus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Verona	4	0	2	2	-4	2
15	Fiorentina	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Cremonese	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Monza	3	0	1	2	-7	1
19	Sampdoria	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Spezia	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.