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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Napoli
U S U S S
2–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,7
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
3,0
1,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,98 xG 1,48
50% Possession 50%
18 Shots 18
7 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 9
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 9
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Napoli Real Madrid
1–0 L. Østigård ⚽
19′
27′
⚽ Vinícius Júnior 1–1
J. Bellingham
29′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
34′
⚽ J. Bellingham 1–2
E. Camavinga
Natan 🟨
45′
Half-time 1–2
Victor Osimhen ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
52′
2–2 P. Zieliński ⚽
54′
64′
🔁 F. Mendy
↦ E. Camavinga
65′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ T. Kroos
70′
🟨 Jude Bellingham
E. Elmas 🔁
↦ M. Politano
70′
G. Raspadori 🔁
↦ P. Zieliński
75′
75′
🔁 Joselu
↦ Rodrygo
78′
⚽ A. Meret 3–2
own goal
84′
🔁 Dani Ceballos
↦ Vinícius Júnior
G. Simeone 🔁
↦ F. Anguissa
88′
Mário Rui 🔁
↦ M. Olivera
88′
J. Cajuste 🔁
↦ S. Lobotka
88′
89′
🟨 Kepa Arrizabalaga
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
55 L. Østigård D
3 Natan D
17 M. Olivera D
99 F. Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
20 P. Zieliński M
21 M. Politano F
9 V. Osimhen F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (12)
7 E. Elmas
81 G. Raspadori
18 G. Simeone
6 Mário Rui
24 J. Cajuste
23 A. Zerbin
70 G. Gaetano
29 J. Lindstrøm
59 A. Zanoli
50 L. D'Avino
14 N. Contini-Baranovskyi
16 H. Idasiak

Coach: R. Garcia

Real Madrid

4-3-1-2
25 Kepa G
2 Dani Carvajal D
6 Nacho D
22 A. Rüdiger D
12 E. Camavinga D
15 F. Valverde M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
5 J. Bellingham M
11 Rodrygo F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (10)
23 F. Mendy
10 L. Modrić
14 Joselu
19 Dani Ceballos
13 A. Lunin
17 Lucas Vázquez
20 Fran García
21 Brahim Díaz
34 Álvaro Carrillo
31 Lucas Cañizares

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.