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La Liga
Referee: Juan Luis Pulido Santana
Girona
S S S S S
0–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
100%
83%
Points per game
3,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
2,8
1,5
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 86%
86%
86%
Points per game
2,7
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
71%
57%
Both score Ø 64%
71%
57%
Average goals
3,7
2,7
Scored
2,6
1,9
Conceded
1,1
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,59 xG 2,38
52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 4
13 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Girona 2. · Real Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 8 6 2 0 +11 +9.7 20
2 Girona 7 6 1 0 +10 +3.6 19
3 Real Madrid 7 6 0 1 +7 +4.9 18
4 Ath Bilbao 7 4 2 1 +7 +5.0 14
5 Ath Madrid 6 4 1 1 +10 +3.7 13
6 Sociedad 7 3 3 1 +3 +1.0 12
7 Vallecano 8 3 3 2 -2 +1.1 12
8 Valencia 7 3 1 3 +2 +0.7 10
9 Cadiz 7 2 3 2 -2 -2.7 9
10 Getafe 8 2 3 3 -3 -2.3 9
11 Betis 7 2 3 2 -5 -3.1 9
12 Villarreal 8 2 2 4 -3 -2.7 8
13 Sevilla 7 2 1 4 +1 -2.4 7
14 Mallorca 8 1 4 3 -3 -3.9 7
15 Osasuna 7 2 1 4 -3 -1.2 7
16 Alaves 7 2 1 4 -4 -0.6 7
17 Celta 7 1 2 4 -4 -2.8 5
18 Las Palmas 7 1 2 4 -4 -2.9 5
19 Granada 7 1 1 5 -8 -6.0 4
20 Almeria 7 0 2 5 -10 +0.9 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Girona Real Madrid
17′
Joselu 0–1
Jude Bellingham
21′
Aurélien Tchouaméni 0–2
Toni Kroos
Half-time 0–2
Valery Fernández 🔁
↦ Viktor Tsygankov
46′
Portu 🔁
↦ David López
60′
Cristhian Stuani 🔁
↦ Artem Dovbyk
60′
Eric García 🟨
64′
68′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ Vinícius Júnior
71′
Jude Bellingham 0–3
Joselu
74′
🔁 Dani Ceballos
↦ Jude Bellingham
Pablo Torre 🔁
↦ Sávio
79′
84′
🟨 Kepa Arrizabalaga
Jhon Solís 🔁
↦ Yangel Herrera
87′
87′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Federico Valverde
87′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ Joselu
93′
ℹ️ Nacho Fernández
VAR: Card upgrade
94′
🟥 Nacho Fernández
Cristhian Stuani 🟨
95′
95′
🟨 Antonio Rüdiger
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Girona

4-5-1
13 Paulo Gazzaniga G
20 Yan Couto D
25 Eric García D
17 Daley Blind D
3 Miguel Gutiérrez D
8 Viktor Tsygankov M
21 Yangel Herrera M
5 David López M
14 Aleix García M
16 Sávio M
9 Artem Dovbyk F
Bench (12)
11 Valery Fernández
24 Portu
7 Cristhian Stuani
18 Pablo Torre
22 Jhon Solís
26 Toni Fuidias
1 Juan Carlos
4 Arnau Martínez
15 Juanpe
23 Iván Martín
6 Ibrahima Kébé
10 Borja García

Coach: Míchel

Real Madrid

4-3-1-2
25 Kepa Arrizabalaga G
2 Daniel Carvajal D
22 Antonio Rüdiger D
6 Nacho Fernández D
12 Eduardo Camavinga D
15 Federico Valverde M
18 Aurélien Tchouaméni M
8 Toni Kroos M
5 Jude Bellingham M
7 Vinícius Júnior F
14 Joselu F
Bench (10)
11 Rodrygo
19 Dani Ceballos
17 Lucas Vázquez
21 Brahim Díaz
26 Diego Piñeiro
13 Andriy Lunin
34 Álvaro Carrillo
23 Ferland Mendy
20 Fran García
10 Luka Modrić

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,57
U
3,92
B ✓
1,98
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,62
U2,5
2,34
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Juan Luis Pulido Santana · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.