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Champions League
Referee: Jesús Gil
Milan
S T T U T
2–1
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
1,7
3,8
Scored
0,5
2,7
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
1,0
3,3
Scored
0,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,45 xG 1,54
31% Possession 69%
16 Shots 17
8 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 8
1 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Oct -23 Paris SG – Milan 3–0

Match report

Milan Paris SG
9′
⚽ M. Škriniar 0–1
Marquinhos
1–1 Rafael Leão ⚽
12′
24′
🟨 Vitinha
29′
🟨 Randal Kolo Muani
43′
🟨 Manuel Ugarte
Half-time 2–1
2–1 O. Giroud ⚽
T. Hernández
50′
55′
🟨 Lucas Hernández
60′
🔁 Fabián Ruiz
↦ M. Ugarte
60′
🔁 Gonçalo Ramos
↦ R. Kolo Muani
60′
🔁 Lee Kang-In
↦ Vitinha
64′
🔁 N. Mukiele
↦ L. Hernández
Yunus Musah 🟨
66′
80′
🟨 Milan Škriniar
R. Krunić 🔁
↦ Y. Musah
84′
N. Okafor 🔁
↦ Rafael Leão
85′
89′
🔁 B. Barcola
↦ M. Škriniar
A. Florenzi 🔁
↦ C. Pulišić
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
23 F. Tomori D
28 M. Thiaw D
19 T. Hernández D
14 T. Reijnders M
80 Y. Musah M
11 C. Pulišić M
8 R. Loftus-Cheek M
10 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (10)
33 R. Krunić
17 N. Okafor
42 A. Florenzi
15 L. Jović
95 D. Bartesaghi
7 Y. Adli
69 L. Nava
21 S. Chukwueze
83 A. Mirante
32 T. Pobega

Coach: S. Pioli

Paris SG

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
37 M. Škriniar D
21 L. Hernández D
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
4 M. Ugarte M
17 Vitinha M
10 O. Dembélé F
23 R. Kolo Muani F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (8)
8 Fabián Ruiz
9 Gonçalo Ramos
19 Lee Kang-In
26 N. Mukiele
29 B. Barcola
28 Carlos Soler
30 A. Letellier
80 Arnau Tenas

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jesús Gil · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.