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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Milan

U S T T U

0–1

Full-time

Udinese

U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Udinese

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

70%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

50%

30%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,6

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,87 xG 1,43

72% Possession 28%

14 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Udinese 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	1	1	+21	+14.1	28
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+10	+10.7	23
3	Milan	10	7	1	2	+7	+4.2	22
4	Napoli	11	6	3	2	+12	+12.5	21
5	Atalanta	11	6	1	4	+9	+5.8	19
6	Bologna	11	4	6	1	+4	+2.3	18
7	Fiorentina	10	5	2	3	+4	-3.3	17
8	Lazio	11	5	1	5	+0	+1.1	16
9	Roma	10	4	2	4	+7	+4.2	14
10	Monza	10	3	4	3	+0	+0.5	13
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-2	-6.6	13
12	Frosinone	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.9	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-5	-4.4	12
14	Genoa	10	3	2	5	-3	-3.8	11
15	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-4	-6.2	11
16	Verona	10	2	2	6	-6	-8.7	8
17	Udinese	10	0	7	3	-8	-0.1	7
18	Empoli	10	2	1	7	-16	-6.0	7
19	Cagliari	10	1	3	6	-12	-3.0	6
20	Salernitana	11	0	4	7	-16	-11.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	1	1	+10	+8.3	13
2	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.9	13
3	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.8	13
4	Roma	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.9	10
5	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.0	10
6	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.5	10
7	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
8	Lecce	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.1	10
9	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.5	9
10	Monza	5	2	3	0	+5	+4.3	9
11	Napoli	5	2	1	2	+2	+6.1	7
12	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
13	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.1	7
14	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.4	7
15	Torino	5	1	3	1	-2	-1.4	6
16	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
17	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-6	+0.6	4
18	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
19	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
20	Salernitana	6	0	3	3	-9	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+11	+5.8	15
2	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.4	14
3	Milan	6	4	1	1	+2	+0.8	13
4	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.8	10
5	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.8	10
6	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	+3	+2.9	9
7	Lazio	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.4	6
8	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.0	6
9	Bologna	5	0	5	0	+0	+0.4	5
10	Roma	5	1	1	3	-2	+0.3	4
11	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
12	Udinese	5	0	4	1	-3	-3.1	4
13	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.7	4
14	Verona	6	1	1	4	-4	-5.9	4
15	Monza	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.8	4
16	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	-5.5	3
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-10	-4.3	3
18	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.1	2
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.6	2
20	Salernitana	5	0	1	4	-7	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.