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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Napoli

S T T S S

2–2

Full-time

Milan

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 67%

56%

78%

Points per game

1,9

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

78%

44%

Both score Ø 56%

67%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,90 xG 2,06

48% Possession 52%

17 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

14 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 4. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	1	1	+20	+13.8	25
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+10	+10.7	23
3	Milan	9	7	0	2	+7	+4.0	21
4	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+10	+11.6	17
5	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	-1.7	17
6	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+7	+4.9	16
7	Bologna	10	3	6	1	+3	+2.2	15
8	Roma	10	4	2	4	+7	+4.2	14
9	Lazio	9	4	1	4	+0	-0.4	13
10	Monza	10	3	4	3	+0	+0.5	13
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-2	-6.6	13
12	Frosinone	10	3	3	4	-2	-1.9	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-5	-4.4	12
14	Genoa	10	3	2	5	-3	-3.8	11
15	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-4	-6.2	11
16	Verona	10	2	2	6	-6	-8.7	8
17	Udinese	10	0	7	3	-8	-0.1	7
18	Empoli	9	2	1	6	-13	-4.7	7
19	Cagliari	10	1	3	6	-12	-3.0	6
20	Salernitana	10	0	4	6	-14	-10.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	1	1	+10	+8.3	13
2	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.9	13
3	Roma	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.9	10
4	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.3	10
5	Bologna	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.8	10
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
7	Lecce	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.1	10
8	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.5	9
9	Monza	5	2	3	0	+5	+4.3	9
10	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
11	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.9	7
12	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.1	7
13	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.4	7
14	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+6.3	6
15	Torino	5	1	3	1	-2	-1.4	6
16	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
18	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-6	+0.6	4
19	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
20	Salernitana	5	0	3	2	-7	-2.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.6	12
3	Napoli	5	3	2	0	+8	+5.3	11
4	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.8	10
5	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+3	-3.2	10
6	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
7	Lazio	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.3	6
8	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.0	6
9	Bologna	5	0	5	0	+0	+0.4	5
10	Roma	5	1	1	3	-2	+0.3	4
11	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
12	Udinese	5	0	4	1	-3	-3.1	4
13	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.7	4
14	Verona	6	1	1	4	-4	-5.9	4
15	Monza	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.8	4
16	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	-5.5	3
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-10	-4.3	3
18	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.1	2
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.6	2
20	Salernitana	5	0	1	4	-7	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.