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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Milan
U T S U S
1–3
Full-time
Dortmund
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,7
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 13%
25%
0%
Average goals
1,5
1,3
Scored
0,5
0,8
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,24 xG 1,79
54% Possession 46%
17 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
10 Corners 1
10 Free kicks against 6
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Oct -23 Dortmund – Milan 0–0

Match report

Milan Dortmund
10′
⚽ M. Reus 0–1
1–1 S. Chukwueze ⚽
D. Calabria
37′
Half-time 1–1
R. Krunić 🔁
↦ M. Thiaw
53′
55′
🔁 K. Adeyemi
↦ D. Malen
55′
🔁 S. Özcan
↦ N. Schlotterbeck
59′
⚽ J. Bynoe-Gittens 1–2
M. Sabitzer
66′
🔁 M. Wolf
↦ J. Bynoe-Gittens
Fikayo Tomori 🟨
67′
69′
⚽ K. Adeyemi 1–3
M. Reus
C. Traorè 🔁
↦ S. Chukwueze
77′
L. Jović 🔁
↦ Y. Adli
77′
79′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ M. Reus
96′
🟨 Emre Can
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
28 M. Thiaw D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
14 T. Reijnders M
7 Y. Adli M
21 S. Chukwueze M
8 R. Loftus-Cheek M
11 C. Pulišić M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (8)
33 R. Krunić
70 C. Traorè
15 L. Jović
83 A. Mirante
69 L. Nava
42 A. Florenzi
95 D. Bartesaghi
32 T. Pobega

Coach: S. Pioli

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
26 J. Ryerson D
15 M. Hummels D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
5 R. Bensebaïni D
23 E. Can M
20 M. Sabitzer M
21 D. Malen M
11 M. Reus M
43 J. Bynoe-Gittens M
14 N. Füllkrug F
Bench (10)
27 K. Adeyemi
6 S. Özcan
17 M. Wolf
19 J. Brandt
42 H. Blank
7 G. Reyna
35 M. Lotka
33 A. Meyer
18 Y. Moukoko
9 S. Haller

Coach: E. Terzić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.