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Champions League
Referee: G Nyberg
Man City
S S S U U
3–2
Full-time
RB Leipzig
T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,5
3,2
Scored
3,3
2,0
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 88%
100%
75%
Points per game
3,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 88%
75%
100%
Average goals
3,8
3,8
Scored
3,0
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,78 xG 0,54
70% Possession 30%
14 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 7
1 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Oct -23 RB Leipzig – Man City 1–3 14. Mar -23 Man City – RB Leipzig 7–0 22. Feb -23 RB Leipzig – Man City 1–1

Match report

Man City RB Leipzig
13′
⚽ L. Openda 0–1
J. Blaswich
Rúben Dias 🟨
21′
33′
⚽ L. Openda 0–2
X. Simons
Half-time 0–2
N. Aké 🔁
↦ Rúben Dias
46′
J. Álvarez 🔁
↦ K. Walker
54′
J. Doku 🔁
↦ J. Grealish
54′
1–2 E. Haaland ⚽
P. Foden
54′
60′
🔁 C. Baumgartner
↦ E. Forsberg
60′
🔁 B. Šeško
↦ L. Openda
2–2 P. Foden ⚽
J. Gvardiol
70′
74′
🔁 Fábio Carvalho
↦ A. Haidara
75′
🔁 Y. Poulsen
↦ X. Simons
3–2 J. Álvarez ⚽
87′
88′
🔁 K. Kampl
↦ X. Schlager
Sergio Gómez 🔁
↦ J. Gvardiol
93′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Man City

3-2-4-1
18 S. Ortega G
2 K. Walker D
3 Rúben Dias D
24 J. Gvardiol D
16 Rodri M
25 M. Akanji M
47 P. Foden F
20 Bernardo Silva M
82 R. Lewis M
10 J. Grealish F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (9)
6 N. Aké
19 J. Álvarez
11 J. Doku
21 Sergio Gómez
31 Ederson
4 K. Phillips
33 S. Carson
5 J. Stones
52 O. Bobb

Coach: Pep Guardiola

RB Leipzig

5-4-1
21 J. Blaswich G
8 A. Haidara D
2 M. Simakan D
16 L. Klostermann D
23 C. Lukeba D
22 D. Raum D
10 E. Forsberg M
13 N. Seiwald M
24 X. Schlager M
20 X. Simons M
17 L. Openda F
Bench (8)
14 C. Baumgartner
30 B. Šeško
18 Fábio Carvalho
9 Y. Poulsen
44 K. Kampl
3 C. Lenz
1 P. Gulácsi
39 B. Henrichs

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Nyberg · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.