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Champions League
Referee: R Obrenović
Union Berlin
U T U U S
2–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,7
Scored
1,0
3,0
Conceded
1,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,4
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
20%
80%
Both score Ø 60%
60%
60%
Average goals
2,2
3,6
Scored
0,8
2,6
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+1,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,90 xG 2,90
26% Possession 74%
8 Shots 23
5 Shots on target 9
0 Blocked shots 4
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 8
1 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 5
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

20. Sep -23 Real Madrid – Union Berlin 1–0

Match report

Union Berlin Real Madrid
Rani Khedira 🟨
35′
35′
🟨 Jude Bellingham
Half-time 1–0
1–0 K. Volland ⚽
46′
46′
🔁 T. Kroos
↦ F. Valverde
55′
🟨 David Alaba
61′
⚽ Joselu 1–1
Rodrygo
71′
🔁 A. Rüdiger
↦ D. Alaba
72′
⚽ Joselu 1–2
Fran García
S. Becker 🔁
↦ P. Jaeckel
75′
A. Král 🔁
↦ R. Khedira
75′
A. Laïdouni 🔁
↦ R. Gosens
75′
Aissa Laïdouni 🟨
76′
80′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Rodrygo
C. Trimmel 🔁
↦ J. Juranović
82′
B. Aaronson 🔁
↦ K. Volland
82′
2–2 A. Král ⚽
A. Laïdouni
85′
89′
⚽ Dani Ceballos 2–3
J. Bellingham
90′
🔁 N. Paz
↦ Dani Ceballos
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Union Berlin

5-3-2
1 F. Rønnow G
18 J. Juranović D
3 P. Jaeckel D
31 R. Knoche D
4 Diogo Leite D
26 J. Roussillon D
19 J. Haberer M
8 R. Khedira M
6 R. Gosens M
10 K. Volland F
17 K. Behrens F
Bench (9)
27 S. Becker
33 A. Král
20 A. Laïdouni
28 C. Trimmel
7 B. Aaronson
11 D. Fofana
39 Y. Stein
38 L. Dehl
37 A. Schwolow

Coach: N. Bjelica

Real Madrid

4-2-2-2
25 Kepa G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
6 Nacho D
4 D. Alaba D
20 Fran García D
10 L. Modrić M
15 F. Valverde M
19 Dani Ceballos M
5 J. Bellingham M
14 Joselu F
11 Rodrygo F
Bench (10)
8 T. Kroos
22 A. Rüdiger
21 Brahim Díaz
32 N. Paz
33 Gonzalo García
28 Mario Martín
23 F. Mendy
13 A. Lunin
36 Vinícius Tobias
31 Lucas Cañizares

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Obrenović · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.