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La Liga

Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Real Madrid

U S S U S

5–1

Full-time

Valencia

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 59%

75%

42%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

42%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,75 xG 1,71

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 26

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Valencia 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	13	11	1	1	+15	+8.5	34
2	Real Madrid	12	9	2	1	+15	+11.1	29
3	Barcelona	12	8	3	1	+12	+14.0	27
4	Ath Madrid	11	8	1	2	+15	+9.5	25
5	Ath Bilbao	13	7	3	3	+8	+8.6	24
6	Sociedad	13	6	4	3	+7	+1.6	22
7	Betis	12	5	5	2	+1	-0.5	20
8	Valencia	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.7	18
9	Las Palmas	13	5	3	5	-1	-3.5	18
10	Vallecano	13	4	6	3	-2	-4.8	18
11	Getafe	13	3	7	3	-2	-3.5	16
12	Osasuna	13	4	2	7	-6	-4.2	14
13	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	-3.9	12
14	Alaves	12	3	3	6	-6	+1.3	12
15	Sevilla	11	2	5	4	+1	-4.1	11
16	Cadiz	12	2	4	6	-7	-7.3	10
17	Mallorca	12	1	6	5	-6	-4.2	9
18	Celta	13	1	4	8	-10	-3.4	7
19	Granada	13	1	4	8	-12	-10.9	7
20	Almeria	13	0	3	10	-20	-6.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+9	+6.7	15
2	Girona	6	5	0	1	+7	+2.6	15
3	Ath Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+5.7	15
4	Ath Bilbao	7	4	2	1	+7	+8.0	14
5	Betis	6	4	2	0	+7	+5.0	14
6	Sociedad	7	4	2	1	+6	+0.2	14
7	Real Madrid	5	4	1	0	+8	+8.9	13
8	Valencia	6	4	0	2	+5	+4.8	12
9	Getafe	6	3	3	0	+3	+1.7	12
10	Las Palmas	6	3	2	1	+2	-0.9	11
11	Alaves	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.8	10
12	Cadiz	6	2	3	1	+2	+2.8	9
13	Sevilla	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.0	8
14	Granada	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.7	6
15	Vallecano	6	1	3	2	-6	-4.4	6
16	Osasuna	7	1	2	4	-5	-0.2	5
17	Mallorca	5	0	4	1	-1	-2.2	4
18	Villarreal	7	1	1	5	-4	-2.5	4
19	Celta	7	0	3	4	-7	+0.6	3
20	Almeria	7	0	2	5	-8	-0.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	7	6	1	0	+8	+5.9	19
2	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+7	+2.1	16
3	Vallecano	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
4	Barcelona	6	3	3	0	+3	+7.3	12
5	Ath Madrid	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.9	10
6	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.6	10
7	Osasuna	6	3	0	3	-1	-4.0	9
8	Sociedad	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.3	8
9	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
10	Las Palmas	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.6	7
11	Valencia	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
12	Betis	6	1	3	2	-6	-5.5	6
13	Mallorca	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.0	5
14	Celta	6	1	1	4	-3	-4.0	4
15	Getafe	7	0	4	3	-5	-5.2	4
16	Sevilla	5	0	3	2	-2	-4.1	3
17	Alaves	6	0	2	4	-5	-2.5	2
18	Granada	6	0	1	5	-8	-6.2	1
19	Cadiz	6	0	1	5	-9	-10.0	1
20	Almeria	6	0	1	5	-12	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.