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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas

Real Madrid

S U U S S

2–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 66%

76%

55%

Points per game

2,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

55%

45%

Both score Ø 43%

52%

34%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,12 xG 0,27

59% Possession 41%

9 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Ath Bilbao 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	29	22	6	1	+44	+29.3	72
2	Barcelona	30	20	7	3	+27	+35.2	67
3	Girona	30	20	5	5	+26	+12.7	65
4	Ath Bilbao	29	16	8	5	+24	+15.3	56
5	Ath Madrid	29	17	4	8	+20	+18.6	55
6	Sociedad	30	13	10	7	+12	+6.4	49
7	Betis	30	10	12	8	+0	-6.1	42
8	Valencia	29	11	8	10	+0	-3.4	41
9	Osasuna	30	11	6	13	-7	-8.0	39
10	Villarreal	29	10	8	11	-4	-2.6	38
11	Getafe	30	9	11	10	-6	-6.5	38
12	Las Palmas	30	10	7	13	-4	-17.4	37
13	Alaves	30	8	8	14	-10	+0.5	32
14	Sevilla	30	7	10	13	-7	-11.4	31
15	Mallorca	30	6	13	11	-10	-5.4	31
16	Vallecano	30	6	12	12	-13	-4.7	30
17	Celta	30	6	10	14	-12	-7.8	28
18	Cadiz	30	4	13	13	-19	-14.4	25
19	Granada	29	2	8	19	-29	-17.4	14
20	Almeria	30	1	10	19	-32	-12.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	15	13	1	1	+18	+17.6	40
2	Real Madrid	14	12	2	0	+28	+21.2	38
3	Girona	15	12	2	1	+22	+11.4	38
4	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+15	+19.5	37
5	Ath Bilbao	15	11	3	1	+22	+15.7	36
6	Valencia	15	8	5	2	+10	+3.8	29
7	Getafe	15	8	4	3	+4	+0.3	28
8	Betis	15	7	6	2	+8	+7.0	27
9	Sociedad	14	6	5	3	+6	+3.8	23
10	Las Palmas	15	6	4	5	+4	-4.2	22
11	Mallorca	15	5	7	3	+2	+0.3	22
12	Alaves	15	6	3	6	-2	+5.0	21
13	Osasuna	15	6	3	6	-4	-0.8	21
14	Villarreal	15	5	4	6	+1	+5.7	19
15	Cadiz	15	4	7	4	-3	+4.1	19
16	Sevilla	15	4	5	6	-2	-2.7	17
17	Celta	15	3	5	7	-7	+4.8	14
18	Vallecano	14	2	7	5	-8	-2.9	13
19	Granada	14	2	6	6	-7	-3.7	12
20	Almeria	15	0	8	7	-14	-0.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	10	4	1	+16	+8.1	34
2	Barcelona	14	8	6	0	+12	+15.7	30
3	Girona	15	8	3	4	+4	+1.3	27
4	Sociedad	16	7	5	4	+6	+2.6	26
5	Ath Bilbao	14	5	5	4	+2	-0.5	20
6	Villarreal	14	5	4	5	-5	-8.3	19
7	Osasuna	15	5	3	7	-3	-7.2	18
8	Vallecano	16	4	5	7	-5	-1.8	17
9	Ath Madrid	14	4	3	7	+2	+1.0	15
10	Betis	15	3	6	6	-8	-13.0	15
11	Las Palmas	15	4	3	8	-8	-13.2	15
12	Celta	15	3	5	7	-5	-12.6	14
13	Sevilla	15	3	5	7	-5	-8.7	14
14	Valencia	14	3	3	8	-10	-7.2	12
15	Alaves	15	2	5	8	-8	-4.5	11
16	Getafe	15	1	7	7	-10	-6.8	10
17	Mallorca	15	1	6	8	-12	-5.8	9
18	Cadiz	15	0	6	9	-16	-18.5	6
19	Almeria	15	1	2	12	-18	-12.2	5
20	Granada	15	0	2	13	-22	-13.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.