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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Valencia

S T S T U

2–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 25/26 matches

Win Ø 59%

40%

77%

Points per game

1,4

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,2

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,15 xG 2,21

29% Possession 71%

12 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Valencia 9. · Real Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	26	20	5	1	+38	+23.3	65
2	Girona	26	18	5	3	+25	+8.6	59
3	Barcelona	26	17	6	3	+22	+31.2	57
4	Ath Madrid	26	16	4	6	+24	+17.1	52
5	Ath Bilbao	26	14	7	5	+20	+15.7	49
6	Betis	26	10	12	4	+5	-1.1	42
7	Sociedad	27	10	10	7	+8	+4.1	40
8	Las Palmas	27	10	7	10	+0	-16.6	37
9	Valencia	25	10	6	9	+0	-1.6	36
10	Getafe	27	8	11	8	-5	-7.3	35
11	Osasuna	26	9	6	11	-7	-4.3	33
12	Alaves	26	7	8	11	-7	+1.6	29
13	Villarreal	26	7	8	11	-10	-5.5	29
14	Sevilla	27	6	9	12	-7	-11.4	27
15	Vallecano	27	5	11	11	-14	-4.5	26
16	Celta	27	5	9	13	-9	-5.0	24
17	Mallorca	26	4	12	10	-11	-4.8	24
18	Cadiz	27	2	13	12	-20	-14.5	19
19	Granada	25	2	8	15	-22	-13.2	14
20	Almeria	27	0	9	18	-30	-11.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	12	1	0	+20	+15.9	37
2	Real Madrid	13	11	2	0	+24	+18.5	35
3	Ath Bilbao	13	10	2	1	+20	+15.7	32
4	Girona	13	10	2	1	+19	+7.6	32
5	Barcelona	14	10	1	3	+13	+16.6	31
6	Betis	14	7	6	1	+9	+7.4	27
7	Getafe	13	7	4	2	+4	-0.1	25
8	Valencia	12	7	3	2	+9	+4.7	24
9	Las Palmas	13	6	4	3	+7	-4.8	22
10	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.6	20
11	Alaves	13	5	3	5	-2	+5.7	18
12	Osasuna	13	5	3	5	-3	+1.4	18
13	Sevilla	14	4	5	5	-1	-3.0	17
14	Mallorca	13	3	7	3	+0	-1.1	16
15	Villarreal	13	3	4	6	-4	+3.3	13
16	Cadiz	13	2	7	4	-6	+2.8	13
17	Celta	14	3	4	7	-7	+4.6	13
18	Granada	13	2	6	5	-6	-3.2	12
19	Vallecano	13	1	7	5	-10	-2.9	10
20	Almeria	13	0	7	6	-11	+0.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	9	3	1	+14	+4.9	30
2	Girona	13	8	3	2	+6	+1.0	27
3	Barcelona	12	7	5	0	+9	+14.6	26
4	Sociedad	14	5	5	4	+4	+1.5	20
5	Ath Bilbao	13	4	5	4	+0	-0.0	17
6	Vallecano	14	4	4	6	-4	-1.6	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	4	5	-6	-8.7	16
8	Ath Madrid	13	4	3	6	+4	+1.2	15
9	Osasuna	13	4	3	6	-4	-5.7	15
10	Betis	12	3	6	3	-4	-8.5	15
11	Las Palmas	14	4	3	7	-7	-11.7	15
12	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-9	-6.3	12
13	Celta	13	2	5	6	-2	-9.6	11
14	Alaves	13	2	5	6	-5	-4.2	11
15	Sevilla	13	2	4	7	-6	-8.4	10
16	Getafe	14	1	7	6	-9	-7.2	10
17	Mallorca	13	1	5	7	-11	-3.7	8
18	Cadiz	14	0	6	8	-14	-17.3	6
19	Granada	12	0	2	10	-16	-10.0	2
20	Almeria	14	0	2	12	-19	-12.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.