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Championship

Referee: B Toner

Derby

U T S U U

1–2

Full-time

Swansea

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

38%

25%

Both score Ø 47%

63%

31%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

3,58 xG 0,24

43% Possession 57%

18 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 14. · Swansea 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	10	5	2	+19	+18.8	35
2	Sheffield United	16	10	4	2	+14	+7.5	34
3	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+15	+4.7	33
4	Sunderland	16	9	5	2	+14	+2.0	32
5	Watford	17	9	2	6	+2	-2.4	29
6	Middlesbrough	17	8	3	6	+9	+15.9	27
7	West Brom	17	6	9	2	+7	+5.1	27
8	Blackburn	16	7	4	5	+3	-0.3	25
9	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+5	+8.5	24
10	Norwich	17	5	7	5	+6	+3.8	22
11	Bristol City	16	5	7	4	+0	+0.5	22
12	Sheffield Weds	17	6	4	7	-6	-0.4	22
13	Stoke	17	5	6	6	-1	-7.1	21
14	Derby	16	5	5	6	+0	-3.3	20
15	Swansea	16	5	4	7	+0	-0.3	19
16	Luton	17	5	3	9	-11	-1.5	18
17	Oxford	17	4	5	8	-8	-11.2	17
18	Preston	17	3	8	6	-8	-3.6	17
19	Plymouth	17	4	5	8	-16	-19.3	17
20	Coventry	16	4	4	8	-3	+5.1	16
21	Cardiff	17	4	4	9	-11	-6.6	16
22	Hull	17	3	6	8	-7	-2.3	15
23	QPR	17	2	8	7	-11	-5.8	14
24	Portsmouth	15	2	6	7	-12	-7.9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	9	7	1	1	+15	+12.5	22
2	Sheffield United	8	7	1	0	+11	+9.3	22
3	Watford	8	7	1	0	+9	+1.8	22
4	Burnley	8	5	3	0	+10	+4.1	18
5	Sunderland	7	5	2	0	+10	+2.9	17
6	Millwall	9	5	2	2	+6	+8.1	17
7	Blackburn	8	5	1	2	+5	+1.6	16
8	Plymouth	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.5	15
9	Oxford	9	4	3	2	+1	-4.4	15
10	Derby	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.6	14
11	Middlesbrough	9	4	2	3	+2	+7.8	14
12	Luton	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.2	14
13	Norwich	8	3	4	1	+10	+4.7	13
14	Stoke	9	3	4	2	+4	-0.4	13
15	Preston	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.2	13
16	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.5	12
17	Sheffield Weds	9	3	3	3	-1	+3.3	12
18	Cardiff	9	4	0	5	-1	-2.0	12
19	West Brom	8	2	5	1	+1	+4.6	11
20	Coventry	8	3	1	4	+1	+6.4	10
21	Bristol City	7	2	4	1	+1	-1.1	10
22	Hull	9	1	4	4	-3	+0.2	7
23	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-4	-1.3	6
24	QPR	9	0	5	4	-8	+0.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	9	4	4	1	+6	+0.5	16
2	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+5	+0.7	15
3	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
4	Middlesbrough	8	4	1	3	+7	+8.1	13
5	Leeds	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.4	13
6	Sheffield United	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.8	12
7	Bristol City	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.6	12
8	Sheffield Weds	8	3	1	4	-5	-3.7	10
9	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.9	9
10	QPR	8	2	3	3	-3	-6.4	9
11	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.9	9
12	Hull	8	2	2	4	-4	-2.5	8
13	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.7	8
14	Millwall	7	1	4	2	-1	+0.4	7
15	Swansea	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.7	7
16	Watford	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.3	7
17	Coventry	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.3	6
18	Derby	9	1	3	5	-6	-4.9	6
19	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-6.6	6
20	Preston	8	0	4	4	-9	-5.8	4
21	Cardiff	8	0	4	4	-10	-4.6	4
22	Luton	8	1	1	6	-12	-4.7	4
23	Oxford	8	0	2	6	-9	-6.8	2
24	Plymouth	9	0	2	7	-20	-16.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.