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Champions League
Referee: U Schnyder
PSV Eindhoven
S T S S S
3–2
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
4,2
2,5
Scored
3,5
0,8
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,8
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
25%
25%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
75%
25%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
1,8
0,5
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,78 xG 1,03
69% Possession 31%
35 Shots 12
18 Shots on target 3
10 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 15
12 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
4 Free kicks against 2
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1

Match report

PSV Eindhoven Shakhtar Donetsk
8′
⚽ D. Sikan 0–1
Y. Konoplia
37′
⚽ O. Zubkov 0–2
Y. Konoplia
Half-time 0–2
R. Pepi 🔁
↦ M. Dams
46′
55′
🔁 Eguinaldo
↦ D. Sikan
Olivier Boscagli 🟨
59′
G. Til 🔁
↦ N. Lang
64′
66′
🔁 T. Stepanenko
↦ O. Zubkov
69′
🟥 Pedrinho
71′
🔁 B. Franjić
↦ Kevin
H. Lozano 🔁
↦ O. Boscagli
74′
Ismael Saibari 🟨
85′
87′
🟨 Dmytro Kryskiv
1–2 M. Tillman ⚽
87′
R. Ledezma 🔁
↦ R. Karsdorp
89′
2–2 M. Tillman ⚽
90′
Malik Tillman 🟨
91′
3–2 R. Pepi ⚽
95′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-3-3
1 W. Benítez G
2 R. Karsdorp D
6 R. Flamingo D
18 O. Boscagli D
32 M. Dams D
34 I. Saibari M
17 Mauro Júnior M
7 M. Tillman M
11 J. Bakayoko F
9 L. de Jong F
10 N. Lang F
Bench (10)
14 R. Pepi
20 G. Til
27 H. Lozano
37 R. Ledezma
28 T. Land
4 A. Obispo
35 F. Oppegård
26 I. Babadi
16 J. Drommel
24 N. Schiks

Coach: P. Bosz

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
31 D. Riznyk G
26 Y. Konoplia D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matviienko D
13 Pedro Henrique D
8 D. Kryskiv M
11 O. Zubkov M
21 A. Bondarenko M
10 H. Sudakov M
37 Kevin M
14 D. Sikan F
Bench (12)
7 Eguinaldo
6 T. Stepanenko
4 B. Franjić
2 L. Traoré
30 Marlon Gomes
39 Newerton
72 K. Fesiun
18 A. Ghram
17 Vinícius Tobias
38 Pedrinho
16 I. Azarovi
9 M. Shved

Coach: M. Pusic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

U Schnyder · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.