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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
RB Leipzig
T T T S S
2–3
Full-time
Aston Villa
U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
0%
60%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
60%
20%
Both score Ø 30%
60%
0%
Average goals
2,8
1,4
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
2,0
0,2
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,23 xG 2,14
47% Possession 53%
17 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 8
5 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 7
3 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

RB Leipzig Aston Villa
3′
⚽ J. McGinn 0–1
O. Watkins
1–1 L. Openda ⚽
N. Seiwald
27′
45′
🟨 Lucas Digne
Half-time 1–1
K. Kampl 🔁
↦ A. Haidara
46′
46′
🔁 J. Durán
↦ O. Watkins
52′
⚽ J. Durán 1–2
Y. Tielemans
59′
ℹ️ Jhon Durán
VAR: Goal cancelled
2–2 C. Baumgartner ⚽
L. Openda
62′
71′
🔁 K. Nedeljković
↦ M. Cash
André Silva 🔁
↦ B. Šeško
76′
76′
🔁 E. Buendía
↦ J. McGinn
79′
🟨 Diego Carlos
Benjamin Henrichs 🟨
81′
83′
🔁 I. Maatsen
↦ L. Digne
83′
🔁 R. Barkley
↦ Y. Tielemans
L. Klostermann 🔁
↦ A. Vermeeren
84′
85′
⚽ R. Barkley 2–3
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-4-2
1 P. Gulácsi G
13 N. Seiwald D
3 L. Geertruida D
4 W. Orbán D
39 B. Henrichs D
14 C. Baumgartner M
18 A. Vermeeren M
8 A. Haidara M
7 A. Nusa M
30 B. Šeško F
11 L. Openda F
Bench (7)
44 K. Kampl
19 André Silva
16 L. Klostermann
26 M. Vandevoordt
31 F. Sakar
47 V. Gebel
38 N. Jatta

Coach: M. Rose

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martínez G
4 E. Konsa D
3 Diego Carlos D
14 Pau Torres D
12 L. Digne D
8 Y. Tielemans M
44 B. Kamara M
2 M. Cash M
27 M. Rogers M
7 J. McGinn M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (12)
9 J. Durán
20 K. Nedeljković
10 E. Buendía
22 I. Maatsen
6 R. Barkley
26 L. Bogarde
24 A. Onana
19 J. Philogene
25 R. Olsen
5 T. Mings
50 S. Swinkels
18 J. Gauci

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.