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Premier League

Referee: D Bond

Aston Villa

T U U T S

1–0

Full-time

Southampton

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 25%

43%

Points per game

1,6

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

71%

50%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,6

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,29 xG 0,33

47% Possession 53%

18 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 0

8 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

14 Corners 1

0 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 8. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	2	1	+18	+15.7	35
2	Chelsea	14	8	4	2	+16	+10.7	28
3	Arsenal	14	8	4	2	+14	+10.0	28
4	Man City	14	8	2	4	+6	+7.4	26
5	Brighton	14	6	5	3	+3	-1.1	23
6	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+2	+4.1	22
7	Nott'm Forest	14	6	4	4	+0	+1.9	22
8	Aston Villa	14	6	4	4	-1	+6.1	22
9	Bournemouth	14	6	3	5	+2	+10.5	21
10	Tottenham	14	6	2	6	+13	+5.2	20
11	Brentford	14	6	2	6	+1	-1.8	20
12	Newcastle	14	5	5	4	+0	+0.9	20
13	Man United	14	5	4	5	+2	-1.8	19
14	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-9	-4.1	15
15	Everton	14	3	5	6	-7	-3.9	14
16	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	-14.0	13
17	Crystal Palace	14	2	6	6	-6	-1.4	12
18	Ipswich	14	1	6	7	-12	-15.9	9
19	Wolves	14	2	3	9	-14	-11.2	9
20	Southampton	14	1	2	11	-19	-17.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	7	6	1	0	+10	+7.2	19
2	Liverpool	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.7	18
3	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+11	+10.4	17
4	Man City	7	5	1	1	+5	+8.6	16
5	Tottenham	7	4	1	2	+10	+5.0	13
6	Bournemouth	7	4	1	2	+4	+7.5	13
7	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	+2.7	13
8	Man United	7	4	1	2	+3	-0.1	13
9	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+1	+2.5	13
10	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+4	+7.0	12
11	Aston Villa	7	3	3	1	+3	+7.5	12
12	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.7	11
13	Newcastle	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.0	11
14	Everton	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.8	9
15	Leicester	7	2	2	3	-1	-7.4	8
16	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
17	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.3	6
18	Ipswich	7	0	4	3	-5	-3.7	4
19	Wolves	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.8	4
20	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-9	-10.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+12	+3.7	16
3	Arsenal	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.4	11
4	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	-2	-0.8	11
5	Man City	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.3	10
6	Brighton	7	3	1	3	+0	-3.7	10
7	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-4	-1.5	10
8	Fulham	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.6	9
9	Newcastle	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.1	9
10	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.0	8
11	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.4	8
12	Tottenham	7	2	1	4	+3	+0.3	7
13	Man United	7	1	3	3	-1	-1.7	6
14	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.7	6
15	Wolves	7	1	2	4	-7	-5.4	5
16	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-7	-12.1	5
17	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-8	-6.6	5
18	Everton	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.1	5
19	Brentford	7	0	1	6	-9	-9.0	1
20	Southampton	7	0	1	6	-10	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.