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Premier League

Referee: L Smith

Aston Villa

T T U U T

3–1

Full-time

Brentford

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

0,5

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 42%

38%

46%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

69%

77%

Both score Ø 77%

69%

85%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,43 xG 1,03

49% Possession 51%

20 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Brentford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	2	1	+18	+15.7	35
2	Chelsea	14	8	4	2	+16	+10.7	28
3	Man City	14	8	2	4	+6	+7.4	26
4	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+8.0	25
5	Brighton	13	6	5	2	+5	-1.9	23
6	Nott'm Forest	14	6	4	4	+0	+1.9	22
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+14	+8.1	20
8	Brentford	13	6	2	5	+3	-0.3	20
9	Newcastle	14	5	5	4	+0	+0.9	20
10	Man United	13	5	4	4	+4	+0.1	19
11	Fulham	13	5	4	4	+0	+4.9	19
12	Aston Villa	13	5	4	4	-3	+4.7	19
13	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+1	+7.7	18
14	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-9	-4.1	15
15	Everton	14	3	5	6	-7	-3.9	14
16	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	-14.0	13
17	Crystal Palace	14	2	6	6	-6	-1.4	12
18	Ipswich	14	1	6	7	-12	-15.9	9
19	Wolves	14	2	3	9	-14	-11.2	9
20	Southampton	14	1	2	11	-19	-17.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	7	6	1	0	+10	+7.2	19
2	Liverpool	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.7	18
3	Man City	7	5	1	1	+5	+8.6	16
4	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.5	14
5	Tottenham	7	4	1	2	+10	+5.0	13
6	Brighton	7	3	4	0	+3	+2.7	13
7	Man United	7	4	1	2	+3	-0.1	13
8	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+4	+7.0	12
9	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.7	11
10	Newcastle	7	3	2	2	+0	+1.0	11
11	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.7	10
12	Fulham	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.3	10
13	Everton	7	2	3	2	+1	-2.8	9
14	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.1	9
15	Leicester	7	2	2	3	-1	-7.4	8
16	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
17	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-4	+1.3	6
18	Ipswich	7	0	4	3	-5	-3.7	4
19	Wolves	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.8	4
20	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-9	-10.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+8	+7.0	17
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+12	+3.7	16
3	Arsenal	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.4	11
4	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	-2	-0.8	11
5	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.5	10
6	Man City	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.3	10
7	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	-4	-1.5	10
8	Fulham	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.6	9
9	Newcastle	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.1	9
10	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.0	8
11	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.4	8
12	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	+4	+3.1	7
13	Man United	6	1	3	2	+1	+0.2	6
14	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.7	6
15	Wolves	7	1	2	4	-7	-5.4	5
16	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-7	-12.1	5
17	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-8	-6.6	5
18	Everton	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.1	5
19	Brentford	6	0	1	5	-7	-7.6	1
20	Southampton	7	0	1	6	-10	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.