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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Benfica

S T S S T

2–2

Full-time

Casa Pia

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

70%

20%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,4

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,06 xG 1,27

66% Possession 34%

19 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Casa Pia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+21	+14.8	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+21	+19.2	28
3	Benfica	10	7	3	0	+17	+12.4	24
4	Gil Vicente	11	7	2	2	+11	+4.1	23
5	Famalicao	11	5	4	2	+6	+4.9	19
6	Moreirense	10	6	0	4	+2	-5.0	18
7	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	-7	-3.9	14
8	Sp Braga	10	3	4	3	+7	+4.9	13
9	Estoril	11	3	4	4	+2	-0.9	13
10	Nacional	11	3	3	5	-4	-3.5	12
11	Rio Ave	11	2	6	3	-5	-9.3	12
12	Estrela	11	2	5	4	-1	+1.7	11
13	Santa Clara	11	3	2	6	-4	+1.9	11
14	Alverca	11	3	2	6	-7	-1.9	11
15	Arouca	11	2	3	6	-17	-14.2	9
16	Casa Pia	10	2	2	6	-11	-8.2	8
17	Tondela	11	1	3	7	-14	-7.1	6
18	AVS	11	0	3	8	-17	-9.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	1	0	+9	+6.9	13
2	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+5	-0.5	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.3	12
4	Benfica	5	3	2	0	+9	+8.7	11
5	Sp Lisbon	5	3	1	1	+10	+8.8	10
6	Famalicao	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.7	8
7	Estoril	6	2	2	2	+1	-0.4	8
8	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	-1	-0.2	8
9	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+5	+4.9	7
10	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.1	7
11	Alverca	6	2	1	3	-5	+1.8	7
12	Estrela	6	1	2	3	-1	+2.3	5
13	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.8	5
14	Arouca	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
15	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
16	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.3	2
17	Casa Pia	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.5	2
18	AVS	6	0	2	4	-8	-3.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+12	+7.9	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+11	+10.4	18
3	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+8	+3.7	13
4	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+6	+0.8	11
5	Famalicao	5	3	2	0	+3	+4.2	11
6	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+2	-2.5	9
7	Rio Ave	6	1	4	1	-1	-5.5	7
8	Sp Braga	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.1	6
9	Estrela	5	1	3	1	+0	-0.5	6
10	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-3	-4.5	6
11	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-5	-2.7	6
12	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.8	6
13	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+1	-0.5	5
14	Alverca	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.7	4
15	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.2	4
16	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-9	-4.8	4
17	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-11	-8.1	4
18	AVS	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.