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Eredivisie

Referee: Jannick van der Laan

Ajax

T U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

2,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

60%

78%

Both score Ø 80%

70%

89%

Average goals

3,4

3,6

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,11 xG 1,06

57% Possession 43%

9 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 4. · Heerenveen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	1	1	+19	+11.3	28
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+18	+13.5	25
3	AZ Alkmaar	10	6	3	1	+10	+10.3	21
4	Ajax	10	5	4	1	+6	+2.6	19
5	Groningen	10	6	0	4	+2	+1.6	18
6	Sparta Rotterdam	10	5	1	4	-8	-3.3	16
7	Nijmegen	10	4	3	3	+8	+4.6	15
8	Twente	10	4	2	4	+2	+10.6	14
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	4	3	+1	-2.5	13
10	For Sittard	11	4	1	6	-4	-6.6	13
11	Utrecht	9	4	0	5	+4	-2.1	12
12	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	+0	+8.6	12
13	Volendam	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.3	10
14	NAC Breda	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.5	9
15	Zwolle	10	2	3	5	-8	-7.0	9
16	Excelsior	10	3	0	7	-11	-8.6	9
17	Telstar	10	2	1	7	-7	-5.5	7
18	Heracles	10	1	0	9	-23	-14.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	4	1	1	+9	+7.7	13
2	Feyenoord	5	4	0	1	+5	+6.7	12
3	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.3	12
4	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	2	0	+7	+6.5	11
5	Nijmegen	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.1	10
6	For Sittard	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.0	10
7	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+3.6	9
8	Groningen	5	3	0	2	+4	+1.1	9
9	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.8	9
10	Volendam	5	2	2	1	+3	-0.5	8
11	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.7	8
12	NAC Breda	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.2	7
13	Twente	5	2	1	2	-1	+5.8	7
14	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	-6	-1.8	7
15	Excelsior	5	2	0	3	-1	-4.2	6
16	Telstar	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.3	4
17	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.9	4
18	Heracles	4	1	0	3	-8	-6.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+10	+3.6	15
2	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+13	+6.9	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.8	10
4	Groningen	5	3	0	2	-2	+0.5	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	5	3	0	2	-2	-1.5	9
6	Twente	5	2	1	2	+3	+4.8	7
7	Ajax	5	1	4	0	+1	-1.7	7
8	Nijmegen	5	1	2	2	+1	-0.5	5
9	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.2	5
10	Zwolle	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.1	5
11	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.7	3
12	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
13	Telstar	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
14	For Sittard	6	1	0	5	-6	-7.5	3
15	Excelsior	5	1	0	4	-10	-4.4	3
16	NAC Breda	5	0	2	3	-6	-8.7	2
17	Volendam	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.7	2
18	Heracles	6	0	0	6	-15	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.