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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Twente

U S S S U

2–3

Full-time

Ajax

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 44%

44%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,75 xG 0,99

62% Possession 38%

21 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Twente 8. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	9	8	1	0	+19	+13.6	25
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+15	+9.8	22
3	AZ Alkmaar	9	5	3	1	+7	+7.7	18
4	Groningen	10	6	0	4	+2	+1.6	18
5	Ajax	9	4	4	1	+5	+4.3	16
6	Sparta Rotterdam	10	5	1	4	-8	-3.3	16
7	Nijmegen	10	4	3	3	+8	+4.6	15
8	Twente	9	4	2	3	+3	+8.9	14
9	For Sittard	10	4	1	5	-1	-5.1	13
10	Utrecht	8	4	0	4	+7	+0.5	12
11	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	+0	+8.6	12
12	Go Ahead Eagles	9	2	4	3	-1	-3.8	10
13	Volendam	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.3	10
14	NAC Breda	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.5	9
15	Zwolle	10	2	3	5	-8	-7.0	9
16	Excelsior	9	3	0	6	-9	-7.3	9
17	Telstar	10	2	1	7	-7	-5.5	7
18	Heracles	10	1	0	9	-23	-14.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	+6.7	12
2	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.3	12
3	Nijmegen	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.1	10
4	PSV Eindhoven	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.3	10
5	For Sittard	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.0	10
6	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+3.6	9
7	Groningen	5	3	0	2	+4	+1.1	9
8	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.8	9
9	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.9	8
10	Volendam	5	2	2	1	+3	-0.5	8
11	Twente	4	2	1	1	+0	+4.0	7
12	NAC Breda	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.2	7
13	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	-6	-1.8	7
14	Excelsior	5	2	0	3	-1	-4.2	6
15	Go Ahead Eagles	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.4	5
16	Telstar	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.3	4
17	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.9	4
18	Heracles	4	1	0	3	-8	-6.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+13	+6.9	13
2	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+9	+3.5	12
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.8	10
4	Groningen	5	3	0	2	-2	+0.5	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	5	3	0	2	-2	-1.5	9
6	Twente	5	2	1	2	+3	+4.8	7
7	Nijmegen	5	1	2	2	+1	-0.5	5
8	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.2	5
9	Zwolle	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.1	5
10	Ajax	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.0	4
11	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-1	-3.1	3
12	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.7	3
13	For Sittard	5	1	0	4	-3	-6.1	3
14	Telstar	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
15	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-8	-3.1	3
16	NAC Breda	5	0	2	3	-6	-8.7	2
17	Volendam	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.7	2
18	Heracles	6	0	0	6	-15	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.