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Europa League
Referee: D Rumšas
Benfica
S S S S U
2–1
Full-time
Toulouse
S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Toulouse
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
3,3
Scored
2,8
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,19 xG 0,53
58% Possession 42%
27 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 19
1 Yellow cards 7
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Benfica Toulouse
37′
🟨 Stijn Spierings
43′
🟨 Mikkel Desler
Half-time 0–0
58′
🟨 Guillaume Restes
David Neres 🔁
↦ João Mário
59′
A. Bah 🔁
↦ Álvaro Fernández
59′
Ángel Di María ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
66′
1–0 Á. Di María ⚽
68′
69′
🔁 S. Babicka
↦ A. Dønnum
70′
🔁 C. Mawissa
↦ M. Diarra
75′
⚽ M. Desler 1–1
T. Dallinga
77′
🔁 F. Magri
↦ T. Dallinga
77′
🔁 C. Cásseres
↦ S. Spierings
86′
🔁 N. Skyttä
↦ Y. Gboho
Marcos Leonardo 🔁
↦ Arthur Cabral
87′
91′
🟨 Naatan Skyttä
Orkun Kökçü 🟨
92′
92′
🟨 Christian Mawissa
96′
🟨 Frank Magri
96′
🟨 Christian Mawissa
96′
🟥 Christian Mawissa
2–1 Á. Di María ⚽
98′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
8 F. Aursnes D
4 António Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
3 Álvaro Fernández D
87 João Neves M
10 O. Kökçü M
11 Á. Di María M
27 Rafa M
20 João Mário M
9 Arthur Cabral F
Bench (11)
7 David Neres
6 A. Bah
36 Marcos Leonardo
75 André Gomes
32 B. Rollheiser
19 C. Tengstedt
5 Morato
24 Samuel Soares
47 Tiago Gouveia
61 Florentino
44 Tomás Araújo

Coach: R. Schmidt

Toulouse

4-2-3-1
50 G. Restes G
3 M. Desler D
6 Logan Costa D
2 R. Nicolaisen D
23 M. Diarra D
4 S. Spierings M
8 V. Sierro M
15 A. Dønnum M
37 Y. Gboho M
17 G. Suazo M
9 T. Dallinga F
Bench (10)
80 S. Babicka
13 C. Mawissa
19 F. Magri
24 C. Cásseres
22 N. Skyttä
40 J. Lacombe
11 César Gelabert
30 Álex Domínguez
12 W. Kamanzi
10 I. Cissoko

Coach: Carles Martínez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Rumšas · 26 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,38 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.