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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Fiorentina

T U S U S

2–2

Full-time

Roma

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,0

2,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 48%

44%

52%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

44%

63%

Both score Ø 54%

44%

63%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,13 xG 0,60

33% Possession 67%

15 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	28	24	3	1	+57	+37.7	75
2	Milan	28	18	5	5	+20	+9.2	59
3	Juventus	28	17	7	4	+21	+23.1	58
4	Bologna	28	14	9	5	+16	+7.0	51
5	Roma	27	14	5	8	+19	+12.9	47
6	Atalanta	28	14	5	9	+19	+10.6	47
7	Napoli	28	12	8	8	+11	+17.9	44
8	Fiorentina	27	12	6	9	+9	+1.0	42
9	Lazio	27	12	4	11	+3	+0.3	40
10	Monza	28	10	9	9	-5	-10.0	39
11	Torino	28	9	11	8	+0	+2.3	38
12	Genoa	28	8	9	11	-5	-4.8	33
13	Verona	28	6	8	14	-11	-9.9	26
14	Cagliari	28	6	8	14	-20	-9.5	26
15	Lecce	28	5	10	13	-20	-13.0	25
16	Empoli	28	6	7	15	-20	-8.2	25
17	Udinese	27	3	15	9	-15	-6.5	24
18	Frosinone	28	6	6	16	-22	-12.2	24
19	Sassuolo	28	6	5	17	-22	-14.6	23
20	Salernitana	28	2	8	18	-35	-33.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	12	1	1	+29	+23.6	37
2	Bologna	15	11	2	2	+18	+6.4	35
3	Milan	14	10	2	2	+15	+7.3	32
4	Atalanta	14	10	1	3	+21	+12.1	31
5	Juventus	14	9	4	1	+12	+14.4	31
6	Roma	14	9	3	2	+18	+10.1	30
7	Fiorentina	13	8	2	3	+11	+6.3	26
8	Torino	14	6	6	2	+6	+7.6	24
9	Napoli	14	6	4	4	+2	+10.3	22
10	Lazio	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.3	21
11	Frosinone	14	6	3	5	+0	-0.9	21
12	Genoa	14	5	5	4	+0	-1.5	20
13	Monza	14	5	5	4	+0	-4.0	20
14	Cagliari	14	5	4	5	-4	+4.9	19
15	Lecce	14	5	4	5	-7	-2.5	19
16	Verona	13	4	5	4	-1	-2.1	17
17	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-7	-5.1	15
18	Udinese	14	1	9	4	-4	+2.6	12
19	Empoli	14	2	4	8	-10	-2.7	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	12	2	0	+28	+14.1	38
2	Juventus	14	8	3	3	+9	+8.7	27
3	Milan	14	8	3	3	+5	+1.9	27
4	Napoli	14	6	4	4	+9	+7.6	22
5	Lazio	14	6	1	7	+0	-5.0	19
6	Monza	14	5	4	5	-5	-6.0	19
7	Roma	13	5	2	6	+1	+2.7	17
8	Atalanta	14	4	4	6	-2	-1.5	16
9	Bologna	13	3	7	3	-2	+0.6	16
10	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-2	-5.3	16
11	Empoli	14	4	3	7	-10	-5.5	15
12	Torino	14	3	5	6	-6	-5.2	14
13	Genoa	14	3	4	7	-5	-3.3	13
14	Udinese	13	2	6	5	-11	-9.1	12
15	Verona	15	2	3	10	-10	-7.8	9
16	Sassuolo	14	2	2	10	-15	-9.5	8
17	Cagliari	14	1	4	9	-16	-14.3	7
18	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-19	-21.9	7
19	Lecce	14	0	6	8	-13	-10.5	6
20	Frosinone	14	0	3	11	-22	-11.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.