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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Milan

S S U T S

3–1

Full-time

Roma

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 61%

68%

53%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 55%

63%

47%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Milan 2. · Roma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	4	1	+34	46
2	Milan	19	13	3	3	+18	42
3	Napoli	19	12	3	4	+21	39
4	Atalanta	19	11	5	3	+14	38
5	Juventus	19	10	4	5	+10	34
6	Roma	19	10	2	7	+10	32
7	Fiorentina	19	10	2	7	+9	32
8	Lazio	20	9	5	6	+5	32
9	Empoli	20	8	4	8	-4	28
10	Verona	20	7	6	7	+3	27
11	Bologna	19	8	3	8	-4	27
12	Torino	19	7	4	8	+4	25
13	Sassuolo	20	6	7	7	-1	25
14	Udinese	18	4	8	6	-2	20
15	Sampdoria	20	5	5	10	-9	20
16	Venezia	19	4	5	10	-16	17
17	Spezia	20	4	4	12	-21	16
18	Cagliari	20	2	7	11	-22	13
19	Genoa	20	1	9	10	-18	12
20	Salernitana	18	2	2	14	-31	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	2	0	+19	23
2	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+12	21
3	Torino	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Roma	10	6	2	2	+5	20
5	Fiorentina	9	6	1	2	+11	19
6	Napoli	10	6	1	3	+10	19
7	Milan	9	6	1	2	+8	19
8	Verona	10	5	2	3	+6	17
9	Juventus	9	5	1	3	+4	16
10	Bologna	10	5	1	4	+2	16
11	Sassuolo	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Atalanta	9	3	3	3	+3	12
13	Udinese	9	2	5	2	-1	11
14	Empoli	10	3	1	6	-8	10
15	Spezia	10	2	3	5	-3	9
16	Sampdoria	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-5	8
18	Cagliari	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Genoa	9	0	4	5	-9	4
20	Salernitana	9	1	1	7	-16	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	10	8	2	0	+11	26
2	Inter	10	7	2	1	+15	23
3	Milan	10	7	2	1	+10	23
4	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+11	20
5	Juventus	10	5	3	2	+6	18
6	Empoli	10	5	3	2	+4	18
7	Fiorentina	10	4	1	5	-2	13
8	Roma	9	4	0	5	+5	12
9	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Sampdoria	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Bologna	9	3	2	4	-6	11
12	Lazio	10	3	2	5	-7	11
13	Verona	10	2	4	4	-3	10
14	Udinese	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Venezia	10	2	3	5	-11	9
16	Genoa	11	1	5	5	-9	8
17	Spezia	10	2	1	7	-18	7
18	Cagliari	10	1	3	6	-15	6
19	Torino	9	1	2	6	-5	5
20	Salernitana	9	1	1	7	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.