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Europa League
Referee: Chris Kavanagh
AEK Larnaca
T T S T U
2–1
Full-time
Celje
T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Larnaca Celje
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
17%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
17%
100%
Average goals
1,7
4,8
Scored
0,3
2,3
Conceded
1,3
2,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
0%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
1,3
4,3
Scored
0,7
2,3
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. Jul -25 Celje – AEK Larnaca 1–1

Match report

AEK Larnaca Celje
40′
🟨 Milot Avdyli
1–0 Y. Chacon ⚽
K. Angielski
43′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 D. Sturm
↦ M. Avdyli
46′
🔁 L. Bejger
↦ D. Vuklisevic
Jimmy Suarez 🔁
↦ M. Rohden
53′
2–0 A. Garcia ⚽
Y. Chacon
67′
79′
🔁 I. Vidovic
↦ A. Kotnik
Jimmy Suárez 🟨
82′
85′
🔁 G. Vodeb
↦ A. Tutyskinas
85′
🔁 A. Chidi
↦ N. Iosifov
Miramon 🔁
↦ D. Ivanovic
85′
C. Loukaidis 🔁
↦ K. Angielski
85′
J. Gnali 🔁
↦ A. Garcia
85′
88′
⚽ M. Kvesic 2–1
A. Chidi
Danny Henriques 🔁
↦ Y. Chacon
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

AEK Larnaca

4-1-3-2
1 Z. Alomerovic
22 G. Ekpolo
15 H. Milicevic
27 V. Roberge
14 A. Garcia
7 Ledes Gustavo
17 P. Pons
8 M. Rohden
18 Y. Chacon
19 K. Angielski
9 D. Ivanovic
Bench (12)
51 A. Paraskevas
99 D. Demetriou
2 P. Ioannou
6 Jimmy Suarez
21 Miramon
24 Danny Henriques
29 G. Naoum
35 C. Thoma
36 C. Loukaidis
37 D. Gerasimou
41 Mathias Gonzalez
93 J. Gnali

Coach: Joseba Imanol Idiakez Barkaiztegi

Celje

4-3-3
1 Z. Leban
2 Juanjo Nieto
23 Z. Karnicnik
3 D. Vuklisevic
6 A. Tutyskinas
19 M. Zabukovnik
17 A. Kotnik
11 M. Avdyli
8 M. Kvesic
20 N. Iosifov
9 F. Kovacevic
Bench (11)
12 L. Kolar
25 T. Zorko
4 D. Hrka
5 G. Vodeb
7 F. Jevsenak
10 D. Sturm
14 A. Chidi
16 I. Vidovic
24 F. Dzevahiric
38 Z. Zuzek
44 L. Bejger

Coach: Albert Riera Ortega

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Chris Kavanagh · 136 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.