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Europa League
Referee: Bastien Dechepy
Celje
T T U S U
1–1
Full-time
AEK Larnaca
T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celje AEK Larnaca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
4,7
1,7
Scored
2,3
0,3
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
5,5
1,0
Scored
3,0
0,5
Conceded
2,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Celje AEK Larnaca
Žan Karničnik 🟨
21′
27′
🟨 Valentin Roberge
1–0 F. Kovacevic ⚽
28′
40′
🟨 Yerson Chacón
Half-time 1–1
53′
⚽ H. Milicevic 1–1
Mario Kvesić 🟨
62′
M. Avdyli 🔁
↦ D. Sturm
64′
Zan Luk Leban 🟨
73′
80′
🔁 Jimmy Suarez
↦ K. Angielski
83′
🔁 Danny Henriques
↦ A. Garcia
85′
🟨 Danny
A. Chidi 🔁
↦ A. Kotnik
89′
92′
🔁 C. Loukaidis
↦ W. Rubio
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Celje

4-3-3
1 Z. Leban G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
23 Z. Karnicnik D
3 D. Vuklisevic D
6 A. Tutyskinas D
19 M. Zabukovnik M
8 M. Kvesic M
17 A. Kotnik F
20 N. Iosifov M
10 D. Sturm M
9 F. Kovacevic F
Bench (9)
12 L. Kolar
4 D. Hrka
5 G. Vodeb
7 F. Jevsenak
11 M. Avdyli
14 A. Chidi
16 I. Vidovic
24 F. Dzevahiric
44 L. Bejger

Coach: Albert Riera Ortega

AEK Larnaca

4-3-1-2
1 Z. Alomerovic G
22 G. Ekpolo D
15 H. Milicevic D
27 V. Roberge D
14 A. Garcia D
8 M. Rohden M
7 Ledes Gustavo M
17 P. Pons M
18 Y. Chacon M
10 W. Rubio M
19 K. Angielski F
Bench (11)
51 A. Paraskevas
99 D. Demetriou
2 P. Ioannou
6 Jimmy Suarez
21 Miramon
24 Danny Henriques
35 C. Thoma
36 C. Loukaidis
37 D. Gerasimou
41 Mathias Gonzalez
44 K. Evripidou

Coach: Joseba Imanol Idiakez Barkaiztegi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Bastien Dechepy · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.