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Europa League
Referee: José María Sánchez Martínez
Aston Villa
T S S S U
4–0
Full-time
Bologna
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Bologna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 11/13 matches
Win Ø 73%
91%
54%
Points per game
2,7
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
45%
54%
Both score Ø 54%
45%
62%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
0,6
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,49 xG 0,80
46% Possession 54%
13 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 17
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Apr -26 Bologna – Aston Villa 1–3 25. Sep -25 Aston Villa – Bologna 1–0 22. Oct -24 Aston Villa – Bologna 2–0

Match report

Aston Villa Bologna
1–0 O. Watkins ⚽
M. Rogers
16′
Morgan Rogers ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
23′
2–0 E. Buendia ⚽
L. Digne
26′
29′
🟨 Federico Bernardeschi
3–0 M. Rogers ⚽
J. McGinn
39′
Half-time 3–0
46′
🔁 R. Orsolini
↦ F. Bernardeschi
46′
🔁 N. Zortea
↦ Joao Mario
46′
🔁 S. Sohm
↦ R. Freuler
L. Bailey 🔁
↦ J. McGinn
64′
T. Abraham 🔁
↦ O. Watkins
64′
Douglas Luiz 🔁
↦ Y. Tielemans
74′
J. Sancho 🔁
↦ M. Rogers
74′
76′
🔁 J. Odgaard
↦ S. Castro
L. Bogarde 🔁
↦ A. Onana
78′
82′
🔁 T. Heggem
↦ N. Casale
4–0 E. Konsa ⚽
T. Abraham
89′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martinez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
14 P. Torres D
12 L. Digne D
24 A. Onana M
8 Y. Tielemans M
7 J. McGinn M
27 M. Rogers M
10 E. Buendia M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (12)
40 M. Bizot
64 J. Wright
3 V. Lindelof
5 T. Mings
31 L. Bailey
21 Douglas Luiz
22 I. Maatsen
9 H. Elliott
26 L. Bogarde
18 T. Abraham
19 J. Sancho
16 A. Garcia

Coach: Unai Emery

Bologna

4-2-3-1
13 F. Ravaglia G
33 J. Miranda D
41 M. Vitik D
16 N. Casale D
17 Joao Mario D
8 R. Freuler M
6 N. Moro M
10 F. Bernardeschi M
19 L. Ferguson M
11 J. Rowe M
9 S. Castro F
Bench (11)
25 M. Pessina
82 M. Franceschelli
7 R. Orsolini
14 T. Heggem
20 N. Zortea
28 N. Cambiaghi
73 F. Castaldo
22 C. Lykogiannis
21 J. Odgaard
4 T. Pobega
23 S. Sohm

Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

José María Sánchez Martínez · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.