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Europa League
Referee: Danny Makkelie
Nott'm Forest
U S S U U
1–0
Full-time
Porto
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
1,2
2,2
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 13/11 matches
Win Ø 55%
46%
64%
Points per game
1,6
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
62%
45%
Both score Ø 55%
46%
64%
Average goals
2,6
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,6
Conceded
0,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,17 xG 0,97
61% Possession 39%
20 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 1
2 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Apr -26 Porto – Nott'm Forest 1–1 23. Oct -25 Nott'm Forest – Porto 2–0

Match report

Nott'm Forest Porto
7′
ℹ️ Jan Bednarek
VAR: Card upgrade
8′
🟥 Jan Bednarek
1–0 M. Gibbs-White ⚽
N. Williams
12′
Igor Jesus 🔁
↦ C. Wood
16′
32′
🟨 Terem Moffi
36′
🟨 Alberto Costa
Omari Hutchinson 🟨
40′
Half-time 1–0
C. Hudson-Odoi 🔁
↦ O. Hutchinson
46′
46′
🔁 J. Kiwior
↦ G. Veiga
46′
🔁 F. Moura
↦ Zaidu
46′
🔁 A. Varela
↦ B. Sainz
46′
🔁 V. Froholdt
↦ A. Costa
N. Milenkovic 🔁
↦ D. Ndoye
65′
66′
🔁 D. Gul
↦ T. Moffi
D. Bakwa 🔁
↦
72′
Morato 🔁
↦ Murillo
72′
90′
🟨 William Gomes
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Nott'm Forest

4-2-3-1
27 S. Ortega G
34 O. Aina D
23 Cunha D
5 Murillo D
3 N. Williams D
6 I. Sangare M
16 N. Dominguez M
21 O. Hutchinson M
10 M. Gibbs-White M
14 D. Ndoye M
11 C. Wood F
Bench (12)
26 M. Sels
67 K. Willows
31 N. Milenkovic
22 R. Yates
29 D. Bakwa
19 Igor Jesus
24 J. McAtee
7 C. Hudson-Odoi
20 L. Lucca
4 Morato
44 Z. Abbott
61 J. Sinclair

Coach: Vitor Pereira

Porto

4-3-3
99 D. Costa G
20 A. Costa D
3 Thiago Silva D
5 J. Bednarek D
12 Zaidu D
42 S. Fofana M
13 P. Rosario M
10 G. Veiga M
7 William Gomes F
29 T. Moffi F
17 B. Sainz F
Bench (12)
14 Claudio Ramos
24 J. Costa
4 J. Kiwior
21 D. Prpic
27 D. Gul
73 G. Bras
11 Pepê
74 F. Moura
22 A. Varela
8 V. Froholdt
86 R. Mora
58 T. Silva

Coach: Francesco Farioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Danny Makkelie · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,40 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.