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Conference League
Referee: S Jablonski
AZ Alkmaar
S T S T S
2–2
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 17/11 matches
Win Ø 65%
65%
64%
Points per game
2,0
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
65%
64%
Both score Ø 44%
24%
64%
Average goals
3,1
2,7
Scored
2,1
1,8
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,85 xG 1,51
54% Possession 46%
8 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 3
2 Offside 7
19 Free kicks against 17
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Apr -26 Shakhtar Donetsk – AZ Alkmaar 3–0

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Shakhtar Donetsk
24′
🟨 Isaque
Mateo Chávez 🟨
31′
Billy van Duijl 🟨
33′
Kasper Boogaard 🟨
35′
Half-time 0–0
A. Oufkir 🔁
↦ S. Maikuma
46′
I. Jensen 🔁
↦ M. Chavez Garcia
46′
Ibrahim Sadiq 🟨
47′
58′
⚽ Alisson 0–1
Kaua Elias
61′
🔁 Marlon Gomes
↦ Isaque Silva
61′
🔁 Eguinaldo
↦ Alisson
B. Kovacs 🔁
↦ M. Meerdink
63′
R. Robbemond 🔁
↦ B. van Duijl
63′
70′
🔁 Luca Meirelles
↦ Kaua Elias
70′
🔁 Lucas Ferreira
↦ Newerton
71′
🟨 Vinícius Tobias
1–1 I. Jensen ⚽
73′
78′
🟨 Eguinaldo
2–1 M. Sin ⚽
B. Kovacs
80′
83′
⚽ Luca Meirelles 2–2
Lucas Ferreira
85′
🟨 Mykola Matvienko
89′
🔁 A. Bondarenko
↦ O. Ocheretko
M. Menu 🔁
↦ Weslley Patati
93′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

3-4-1-2
41 J. Zoet G
18 R. Ichihara D
4 M. Dekker D
23 B. van Duijl D
2 S. Maikuma M
74 K. Boogaard M
33 M. Sin M
15 M. Chavez Garcia M
7 Weslley Patati F
35 M. Meerdink F
11 I. Sadiq F
Bench (12)
12 H. Verhulst
1 R. Owusu-Oduro
26 K. Smit
24 A. Oufkir
9 T. Parrott
5 Penetra
10 S. Mijnans
17 I. Jensen
22 E. Dijkstra
45 B. Kovacs
56 R. Robbemond
46 M. Menu

Coach: Leeroy Echteld

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
31 D. Riznyk G
17 V. Tobias D
5 V. Bondar D
22 M. Matviienko D
13 P. Henrique D
29 Y. Nazaryna M
30 Alisson M
27 O. Ocheretko M
14 Isaque Silva M
11 Newerton M
19 Kaua Elias F
Bench (12)
48 D. Tvardovskyi
4 Marlon
2 L. Traore
6 Marlon Gomes
68 P. Obah
49 Luca Meirelles
26 Y. Konoplya
21 A. Bondarenko
16 I. Azarovi
18 A. Ghram
7 Eguinaldo
37 Lucas Ferreira

Coach: Arda Turan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Jablonski · 136 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.