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Europa League
Referee: Glenn Nyberg
Aston Villa
S S T T T
4–0
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,2
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 13/15 matches
Win Ø 69%
85%
53%
Points per game
2,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
46%
53%
Both score Ø 39%
38%
40%
Average goals
2,5
2,4
Scored
1,8
1,6
Conceded
0,6
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,74 xG 0,79
51% Possession 49%
18 Shots 7
10 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
6 Corners 3
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

30. Apr -26 Nott'm Forest – Aston Villa 1–0 12. Apr -26 Nott'm Forest – Aston Villa 1–1 3. Jan -26 Aston Villa – Nott'm Forest 3–1 5. Apr -25 Aston Villa – Nott'm Forest 2–1 14. Dec -24 Nott'm Forest – Aston Villa 2–1

Match report

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest
18′
🟨 Morato
1–0 O. Watkins ⚽
E. Buendia
36′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 R. Yates
↦ J. McAtee
48′
🟨 Jair
Pau Torres ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
56′
2–0 E. Buendia ⚽
58′
71′
🔁 D. Bakwa
↦ Morato
71′
🔁 L. Lucca
↦ C. Wood
L. Bogarde 🔁
↦ V. Lindelof
74′
3–0 J. McGinn ⚽
O. Watkins
77′
4–0 J. McGinn ⚽
M. Rogers
80′
J. Sancho 🔁
↦ E. Buendia
86′
88′
🔁 Murillo
↦ Cunha
88′
🔁 J. Sinclair
↦ O. Hutchinson
T. Mings 🔁
↦ M. Rogers
90′
L. Bailey 🔁
↦ J. McGinn
90′
Douglas Luiz 🔁
↦ P. Torres
90′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martinez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
14 P. Torres D
12 L. Digne D
3 V. Lindelof M
8 Y. Tielemans M
7 J. McGinn M
27 M. Rogers M
10 E. Buendia M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (11)
40 M. Bizot
64 J. Wright
5 T. Mings
31 L. Bailey
21 Douglas Luiz
22 I. Maatsen
9 H. Elliott
26 L. Bogarde
18 T. Abraham
19 J. Sancho
16 A. Garcia

Coach: Unai Emery

Nott'm Forest

4-4-1-1
27 S. Ortega G
23 Cunha D
31 N. Milenkovic D
4 Morato D
3 N. Williams D
21 O. Hutchinson M
16 N. Dominguez M
8 E. Anderson M
24 J. McAtee M
19 Igor Jesus F
11 C. Wood F
Bench (12)
26 M. Sels
67 K. Willows
6 I. Sangare
22 R. Yates
10 M. Gibbs-White
29 D. Bakwa
5 Murillo
20 L. Lucca
14 D. Ndoye
65 J. Hanks
51 A. Whitehall
61 J. Sinclair

Coach: Vitor Pereira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Glenn Nyberg · 27 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.