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Premier League

Referee: T Kirk

Nott'm Forest

S S U U S

4–1

Full-time

Burnley

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 19%

25%

13%

Points per game

1,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,19 xG 0,36

51% Possession 49%

10 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 16. · Burnley 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	32	21	7	4	+38	+31.6	70
2	Man City	31	19	7	5	+35	+23.3	64
3	Man United	33	16	10	7	+13	+12.2	58
4	Aston Villa	32	16	7	9	+5	-6.3	55
5	Liverpool	32	15	7	10	+10	+14.0	52
6	Chelsea	33	13	9	11	+11	+17.6	48
7	Brentford	33	13	9	11	+4	+8.9	48
8	Bournemouth	33	11	15	7	+0	+3.8	48
9	Brighton	33	12	11	10	+6	+5.5	47
10	Everton	32	13	8	11	+2	-9.2	47
11	Sunderland	32	12	10	10	-3	-14.4	46
12	Fulham	33	13	6	14	-3	-4.6	45
13	Crystal Palace	31	11	9	11	-1	+7.7	42
14	Newcastle	33	12	6	15	-3	+4.0	42
15	Leeds	33	9	12	12	-7	+2.0	39
16	Nott'm Forest	32	8	9	15	-12	-9.8	33
17	West Ham	32	8	8	16	-17	-12.2	32
18	Tottenham	33	7	10	16	-11	-14.1	31
19	Burnley	32	4	8	20	-30	-36.3	20
20	Wolves	33	3	8	22	-37	-23.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	12	2	2	+25	+18.6	38
2	Man City	15	11	3	1	+25	+14.4	36
3	Man United	16	10	3	3	+12	+12.6	33
4	Aston Villa	16	10	2	4	+8	+0.8	32
5	Liverpool	16	9	4	3	+12	+10.4	31
6	Sunderland	16	8	5	3	+9	-3.7	29
7	Fulham	16	9	2	5	+8	+1.9	29
8	Brentford	17	7	7	3	+9	+11.8	28
9	Brighton	16	7	6	3	+7	+5.6	27
10	Bournemouth	16	6	8	2	+6	+11.6	26
11	Leeds	17	7	5	5	+5	+8.9	26
12	Newcastle	17	8	2	7	+2	+6.7	26
13	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+2	+9.0	23
14	Everton	16	6	4	6	+2	-0.8	22
15	Crystal Palace	16	4	7	5	-3	+9.3	19
16	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-6	-1.5	16
17	Nott'm Forest	16	3	6	7	-6	+1.1	15
18	Wolves	16	3	3	10	-14	-8.3	12
19	Tottenham	17	2	5	10	-10	-4.2	11
20	Burnley	16	2	5	9	-10	-14.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	9	5	2	+13	+13.0	32
2	Man City	16	8	4	4	+10	+8.9	28
3	Chelsea	16	7	4	5	+9	+8.6	25
4	Man United	17	6	7	4	+1	-0.4	25
5	Everton	16	7	4	5	+0	-8.3	25
6	Crystal Palace	15	7	2	6	+2	-1.6	23
7	Aston Villa	16	6	5	5	-3	-7.2	23
8	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-6	-7.8	22
9	Liverpool	16	6	3	7	-2	+3.6	21
10	Tottenham	16	5	5	6	-1	-9.9	20
11	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-1	-0.1	20
12	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-5	-2.9	20
13	Nott'm Forest	16	5	3	8	-6	-10.9	18
14	Sunderland	16	4	5	7	-12	-10.7	17
15	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-5	-2.8	16
16	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-11	-10.7	16
17	Fulham	17	4	4	9	-11	-6.5	16
18	Leeds	16	2	7	7	-12	-6.9	13
19	Burnley	16	2	3	11	-20	-22.2	9
20	Wolves	17	0	5	12	-23	-15.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.